# Brazil fertilizer prices diverge in Q4 as StoneX sees firm nitrogen, stable potash - Fertilizer Daily

> StoneX expects Brazil fertilizer prices to diverge in Q4 2026, with nitrogen staying firm, potash stable and phosphates open to some correction. Supply constraints, including Chinese MAP and DAP export curbs and high sulfur costs, are capping phosphate output.

- Date: 2026-10-22 · published 2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/676-brazil-fertilizer-prices-diverge-in-q4-as-stonex-sees-firm-nitrogen-stable
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md), [TSP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/TSP.md), [Potash (KCl)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/POTASH.md)

## Why it matters

Firm nitrogen and phosphate supply constraints keep input costs elevated for Brazilian growers, while potash stability limits upside. Phosphate price relief would mainly help growers buying for the second crop or 2027.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: neutral
- TSP: neutral
- UREA: bullish ▲
- POTASH: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2026-07-16 | [France's €145M nitrogen fertilizer aid lifts up urea prices by 8% — Fertilizer Daily](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18674-france-s-145m-nitrogen-fertilizer-aid-lifts-up-urea-prices-by-8-fertilizer-daily.md) | +4.2% | +4.1% |
| UREA | 2026-10-28 | [U.S. Corn Growers Urge Faster Fertilizer Antitrust Action as Prices Keep Rising - Fertilizer Daily](https://feedsoft.ai/events/293-u-s-corn-growers-urge-faster-fertilizer-antitrust-action-as-prices-keep-rising.md) | -1.3% | — |
| UREA | 2021-10-20 | [Rice Prices Set to Rise as Fertilizer Rally Drives Up Farm Costs - Caixin Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44642-rice-prices-set-to-rise-as-fertilizer-rally-drives-up-farm-costs-caixin-global.md) | -2.0% | +9.0% |
| UREA | 2025-12-12 | [Nitrogen market braces for CBAM after document leak \| World Fertilizer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21824-nitrogen-market-braces-for-cbam-after-document-leak-world-fertilizer.md) | +1.0% | +11.0% |
| UREA | 2025-10-25 | [Fertiliser Prices Set to Surge as China Suspends Exports - PLY INSIGHT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9556-fertiliser-prices-set-to-surge-as-china-suspends-exports-ply-insight.md) | +1.1% | +1.5% |
| DAP | 2026-09-01 | [The global nitrogen fertilizer market is gradually stabilizing](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5474-the-global-nitrogen-fertilizer-market-is-gradually-stabilizing.md) | +0.3% | +1.6% |
| DAP | 2021-05-20 | [CCEA approves increased prices for Phosphatic and Potassic (P&K) fertilizers vide notification dated 20.5.2021 to be rolled over for the whole year 2021-22](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47024-ccea-approves-increased-prices-for-phosphatic-and-potassic-p-and-k-fertilizers.md) | +0.5% | +4.2% |
| DAP | 2024-11-01 | [Fertilizer subsidy payout declines in April-September  - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5408-fertilizer-subsidy-payout-declines-in-april-september-the-hindubusinessline.md) | 0.0% | -0.9% |

## Sources

- fertilizerdaily.com: https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/20261022-brazil-fertilizer-prices-q4-2026-stonex/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.