# HPAI Fails to Impact Dairy Prices So Far - Why Markets Could Actually See Some Growth in the Near Future - Dairy Herd

> Highly pathogenic avian flu has been confirmed in dairy herds in Michigan, Texas, Kansas and Idaho, with presumptive positives in New Mexico. Affected herds have lost milk production, but no herds have been liquidated. Milk futures and cash prices have not yet been affected, though cheese spot prices have declined and pushed nearby Class III contracts to new lows.

- Date: 2024-04-03 · published 2024-04-03T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: disease · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/6733-hpai-fails-to-impact-dairy-prices-so-far-why-markets-could-actually-see-some
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md)

## Why it matters

Lower cheese prices are weighing on Class III milk futures, and the outbreak could eventually reduce milk output. Spring flush and steady demand currently keep supply sufficient, so the effect on prices has so far been limited.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2024-04-03 | 1 | -5.6% | -4.7 | H5N1 confirmed in dairy herds across several states pressured spot cheese and pushed nearby Class III contracts to new lows, adding to demand and sentiment concerns. |
| MILK | 2024-04-02 | 1 | -5.6% | -4.8 | Notes cheese spot prices declined and pushed nearby Class III contracts to new lows amid HPAI uncertainty, supporting a sentiment and cheese-driven selloff. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2024-07-15 | [Tests confirm H5N1 in Oklahoma dairy herd; 13 states now affected \| CIDRAP](https://feedsoft.ai/events/16076-tests-confirm-h5n1-in-oklahoma-dairy-herd-13-states-now-affected-cidrap.md) | +0.5% | +3.6% |
| MILK | 2025-02-21 | [U.S. Milk Production Report—January 2025: Navigating Avian Flu Impacts and Market Dynamics \| The Bullvine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26041-u-s-milk-production-report-january-2025-navigating-avian-flu-impacts-and-market.md) | -0.5% | -8.8% |
| MILK | 2024-06-15 | [Bird flu risk is restricted to those who work with dairy cattle — for now : NPR](https://feedsoft.ai/events/16088-bird-flu-risk-is-restricted-to-those-who-work-with-dairy-cattle-for-now-npr.md) | +0.3% | -0.6% |
| MILK | 2024-11-14 | [Additional HPAI detections in western US dairies and poultry flocks - United Egg Producers](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27435-additional-hpai-detections-in-western-us-dairies-and-poultry-flocks-united-egg.md) | -0.3% | -6.0% |
| MILK | 2025-06-01 | [Enhancing the response to avian influenza in the US and globally - The Lancet Regional Health – Americas](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15992-enhancing-the-response-to-avian-influenza-in-the-us-and-globally-the-lancet.md) | +0.8% | +0.7% |

## Sources

- dairyherd.com: https://www.dairyherd.com/markets/milk-prices/hpai-fails-impact-dairy-prices-so-far-why-markets-could-actually-see-some-growth-near-future

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.