# Terrain | Heifer Retention Likely Too Low to Bolster Beef Cow Herd

> USDA data showed US beef cattle slaughter down about 4% year over year in early 2023, with beef cow numbers down 3.6% and the 2022 calf crop the smallest since 2015. The forecast projects 2023 slaughter and beef production down 4.25% to 4.75%. Equatorial Pacific temperatures have moved to neutral, with rising odds of El Niño by late 2023.

- Date: 2023-04-27 · published 2023-04-27T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/6722-terrain-heifer-retention-likely-too-low-to-bolster-beef-cow-herd
- Commodities: [Live Cattle](https://feedsoft.ai/c/LCATTLE.md), [Feeder Cattle](https://feedsoft.ai/c/FCATTLE.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

A shrinking herd and fewer replacement heifers keep cattle supplies tight, supporting prices. Emerging El Niño raises the risk of pasture and crop weather stress later in the year.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: neutral
- FCATTLE: bullish ▲
- LCATTLE: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| LCATTLE | 2024-03-25 | [Terrain \| Delayed Marketings Bolster Cattle Feeders’ Bargaining Position](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31321-terrain-delayed-marketings-bolster-cattle-feeders-bargaining-position.md) | -1.8% | -2.3% |
| LCATTLE | 2024-03-13 | [Droughts, complicated by climate change, result in US beef herd hitting historic low - Investigate Midwest](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31164-droughts-complicated-by-climate-change-result-in-us-beef-herd-hitting-historic.md) | +0.6% | -2.3% |
| LCATTLE | 2022-08-01 | [Maximizing Profits Under Drought Conditions, Higher Input Costs, and National Herd Liquidation \| UNL Beef \| Nebraska](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39970-maximizing-profits-under-drought-conditions-higher-input-costs-and-national.md) | +0.1% | +3.6% |
| LCATTLE | 2021-11-10 | [The Cycle of Drought, Cowherd Liquidation and Higher Feeder Cattle Prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44208-the-cycle-of-drought-cowherd-liquidation-and-higher-feeder-cattle-prices.md) | +0.7% | +6.3% |
| LCATTLE | 2023-08-27 | [Live cattle gain as heat impacts producers - CME
						 \| The Beef Site](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34714-live-cattle-gain-as-heat-impacts-producers-cme-the-beef-site.md) | -0.8% | +1.5% |
| FCATTLE | 2024-03-25 | [Terrain \| Delayed Marketings Bolster Cattle Feeders’ Bargaining Position](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31321-terrain-delayed-marketings-bolster-cattle-feeders-bargaining-position.md) | -3.8% | -2.8% |
| FCATTLE | 2024-03-13 | [Droughts, complicated by climate change, result in US beef herd hitting historic low - Investigate Midwest](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31164-droughts-complicated-by-climate-change-result-in-us-beef-herd-hitting-historic.md) | +0.7% | -4.3% |
| FCATTLE | 2022-08-01 | [Maximizing Profits Under Drought Conditions, Higher Input Costs, and National Herd Liquidation \| UNL Beef \| Nebraska](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39970-maximizing-profits-under-drought-conditions-higher-input-costs-and-national.md) | +0.5% | +2.0% |

## Sources

- terrainag.com: https://www.terrainag.com/insights/heifer-retention-likely-too-low-to-bolster-beef-cow-herd/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.