# Global investment banks rush to trim yuan forecasts under looming Trump tariff threats

> Global investment banks are cutting yuan forecasts as Trump's proposed tariffs and tax policies loom. The policies are expected to be inflationary, keeping US interest rates high and supporting the dollar against trading partner currencies.

- Date: 2024-11-12 · published 2024-11-12T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region China · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/6700-global-investment-banks-rush-to-trim-yuan-forecasts-under-looming-trump-tariff
- Commodities: [Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDCNY.md), [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

Expected yuan weakness and a firmer dollar raise the cost of US agricultural imports for China, which could reduce demand for US feed grains and meal.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bullish ▲
- SOY: bearish ▼
- USDCNY: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDCNY | 2024-11-12 | 5 | +1.9% | 4.8 | Banks cutting yuan forecasts on tariff and inflationary US policy reinforced depreciation expectations and sentiment on Nov 12. |
| DXY | 2024-11-12 | 1 | +1.0% | 3.1 | Same-day bank yuan forecast cuts on Trump tariff and inflation expectations reflect higher-for-longer US rates supporting the dollar against trading partner currencies. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDCNY | 2024-11-28 | [Chinese yuan to hit record lows as U.S. tariff threat mounts, investment banks forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27630-chinese-yuan-to-hit-record-lows-as-u-s-tariff-threat-mounts-investment-banks.md) | +0.1% | +0.7% |
| USDCNY | 2025-01-20 | [A weakening yuan tests Beijing's resolve as Trump tariff threats loom](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9595-a-weakening-yuan-tests-beijing-s-resolve-as-trump-tariff-threats-loom.md) | -1.0% | -0.6% |
| USDCNY | 2024-11-12 | [China’s yuan weakens to 3-1/2-month low as Trump tariff threat weighs - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6701-china-s-yuan-weakens-to-3-1-2-month-low-as-trump-tariff-threat-weighs-markets.md) | +0.8% | +1.0% |
| USDCNY | 2024-12-03 | [China’s yuan hits lowest level in months as Trump tariff threats roil currencies \| South China Morning Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27171-china-s-yuan-hits-lowest-level-in-months-as-trump-tariff-threats-roil.md) | -0.2% | +0.4% |
| USDCNY | 2016-11-16 | [China’s Yuan Tumbles to Eight-Year Low as Banks Weaken Forecasts - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7741-china-s-yuan-tumbles-to-eight-year-low-as-banks-weaken-forecasts-bloomberg.md) | +0.5% | +0.7% |
| DXY | 2016-11-16 | [China’s Yuan Tumbles to Eight-Year Low as Banks Weaken Forecasts - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7741-china-s-yuan-tumbles-to-eight-year-low-as-banks-weaken-forecasts-bloomberg.md) | +0.6% | -0.0% |
| DXY | 2025-09-26 | [Korean won sinks amid US investment jitters; Seoul plans 24-hour FX trading  - KED Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23110-korean-won-sinks-amid-us-investment-jitters-seoul-plans-24-hour-fx-trading-ked.md) | -0.1% | +0.3% |
| DXY | 2025-01-31 | [EUR/USD faces pressure as Trump's tariff threats improve USD's appeal](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26727-eur-usd-faces-pressure-as-trump-s-tariff-threats-improve-usd-s-appeal.md) | +0.1% | +0.1% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/global-investment-banks-rush-trim-yuan-forecasts-under-looming-trump-tariff-2024-11-12/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.