# Soybeans suffer 1-2 punch from trade fight and a disease that’s ravaging China’s swine herd - MarketWatch

> African Swine Fever has spread to every province in mainland China and is estimated to affect 150 to 200 million pigs. USDA warned it will be a game changer for the oilseed complex, projecting a possible 42 million ton drop in China's soybean import demand through 2019/20.

- Date: 2019-05-15 · published 2019-05-15T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: disease · region China · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/6666-soybeans-suffer-1-2-punch-from-trade-fight-and-a-disease-that-s-ravaging-china
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

Sharply lower hog feed demand in China cuts soybean and soybean meal import needs, which is bearish for soybean and meal prices and weighs on global oilseed balances.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bearish ▼
- SOY: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBM | 2019-05-15 | 5 | +6.3% | 3.2 | USDA's warning of a large drop in China's soybean import demand from ASF is bearish for the oilseed complex. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2019-03-12 | [Swine fever hurts China soybean demand, raises doubts on trade promises](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60092-swine-fever-hurts-china-soybean-demand-raises-doubts-on-trade-promises.md) | +3.2% | +2.4% |
| SOY | 2018-09-11 | [African Swine Fever May Reduce China's Soybean Demand](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63016-african-swine-fever-may-reduce-china-s-soybean-demand.md) | -1.2% | +4.3% |
| SOY | 2018-11-01 | [Effects from African swine fever may  reduce China's soybean needs.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62037-effects-from-african-swine-fever-may-reduce-china-s-soybean-needs.md) | +3.4% | +5.8% |
| SOY | 2019-04-22 | [Pork and Soybean Markets Adjust to African Swine Fever - ProAg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59588-pork-and-soybean-markets-adjust-to-african-swine-fever-proag.md) | -3.0% | -6.7% |
| SOY | 2021-04-15 | [More wheat feeding and pig disease outbreaks pose double threat to China soymeal demand \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47642-more-wheat-feeding-and-pig-disease-outbreaks-pose-double-threat-to-china.md) | +6.2% | +17.8% |
| SBM | 2018-08-31 | [Hog prices poised to soar as deadly swine disease emerges in China - MarketWatch](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63673-hog-prices-poised-to-soar-as-deadly-swine-disease-emerges-in-china-marketwatch.md) | +4.2% | +1.3% |
| SBM | 2019-03-12 | [Swine fever hurts China soybean demand, raises doubts on trade promises](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60092-swine-fever-hurts-china-soybean-demand-raises-doubts-on-trade-promises.md) | +4.4% | +4.2% |
| SBM | 2018-09-11 | [African Swine Fever May Reduce China's Soybean Demand](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63016-african-swine-fever-may-reduce-china-s-soybean-demand.md) | -4.1% | -0.5% |

## Sources

- marketwatch.com: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/soybeans-suffer-1-2-punch-from-trade-fight-and-a-disease-thats-ravaging-chinas-swine-herd-2019-05-15

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.