# Soybean shortage or poor crush capacity allocation? - Lakefront Futures & Options | Commodity Hedging | Trading | Managed Futures

> Lakefront Futures argues the soybean rally reflects logistics and crush capacity allocation more than a true bean shortage. Argentina holds back beans because of a weak peso, and soymeal business is shifting to the U.S. where basis has improved.

- Date: 2018-02-13 · published 2018-02-13T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: logistics · region Argentina · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/66589-soybean-shortage-or-poor-crush-capacity-allocation-lakefront-futures-and
- Commodities: [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Argentine Peso (ARS per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDARS.md)

## Why it matters

If the rally is driven by logistics rather than scarce beans, new crush capacity in the Dakotas and Michigan could eventually ease meal tightness. Until then, feed buyers face firm meal prices as the market reroutes trade to the U.S.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bullish ▲
- SOY: neutral
- USDARS: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBM | 2021-09-30 | [Palm oil futures hit all-time high as China rushes to fill soy oil shortage \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45163-palm-oil-futures-hit-all-time-high-as-china-rushes-to-fill-soy-oil-shortage-s.md) | -4.5% | -2.1% |
| SBM | 2020-03-24 | [Soybean meal futures rose amid concern on trade logistics - The Global Herald](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6173-soybean-meal-futures-rose-amid-concern-on-trade-logistics-the-global-herald.md) | -2.4% | -13.3% |
| SBM | 2020-03-26 | [China soybean crushers short of supplies fear coronavirus upheaval](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11210-china-soybean-crushers-short-of-supplies-fear-coronavirus-upheaval.md) | -2.1% | -10.3% |
| SBM | 2021-09-27 | [Soy crushing facilities in China halt operations  \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45138-soy-crushing-facilities-in-china-halt-operations-world-grain.md) | -2.7% | -2.3% |
| SBM | 2022-10-27 | [China’s Shortage of Pig Feed Set to Ease on Looming Soy Imports - Caixin Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39128-china-s-shortage-of-pig-feed-set-to-ease-on-looming-soy-imports-caixin-global.md) | +3.0% | -1.5% |
| SOY | 2022-01-25 | [Lock and Dam Project Receives $732 Million in Renovation Funding Key to Help Ensure Global Competitiveness of U.S. Soy \| United Soybean Board](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43330-lock-and-dam-project-receives-732-million-in-renovation-funding-key-to-help.md) | +6.2% | +16.5% |
| SOY | 2021-02-01 | [Panama Canal Congestion: A Commodity Market Case Study Panama Canal case study: Minimising the impact of elevated congestion in Commodity markets \| Kpler - Feb 01, 2021](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48517-panama-canal-congestion-a-commodity-market-case-study-panama-canal-case-study.md) | -0.2% | +1.6% |
| SOY | 2024-09-20 | [Fueling progress - American Soybean Association](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15181-fueling-progress-american-soybean-association.md) | +2.7% | -2.4% |

## Sources

- lakefrontfutures.com: https://www.lakefrontfutures.com/soybean-shortage-poor-crush-capacity-allocation/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.