# Early Estimates Expect 2018/19 Wheat Production to Fall in the Black Sea - U.S. Wheat Associates

> U.S. Wheat Associates reports early 2018/19 production estimates pointing to lower Black Sea wheat output. Canada, the EU and Kazakhstan are covered, with Kazakhstan's forecast at 13.7 MMT, down 2 percent. USDA's first 2018/19 U.S. estimate was due February 23.

- Date: 2018-02-22 · published 2018-02-22T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/66432-early-estimates-expect-2018-19-wheat-production-to-fall-in-the-black-sea-u-s
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Smaller Black Sea and Kazakh crops reduce exportable wheat supply for importers and could support world wheat prices. Stable Canadian and EU output limits the upside.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2018-04-19 | [Competing for Acres: 2018/19 Global Wheat Production to Fall - U.S. Wheat Associates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65487-competing-for-acres-2018-19-global-wheat-production-to-fall-u-s-wheat-associates.md) | +0.3% | -1.2% |
| WHEAT | 2017-06-29 | [World Wheat Production to Decline in 2017/18 - U.S. Wheat Associates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70449-world-wheat-production-to-decline-in-2017-18-u-s-wheat-associates.md) | +2.3% | -2.9% |
| WHEAT | 2018-09-19 | [Weather Continues to Affect Global Wheat Production - U.S. Wheat Associates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62993-weather-continues-to-affect-global-wheat-production-u-s-wheat-associates.md) | +0.7% | +8.5% |
| WHEAT | 2022-10-06 | [USDA takes axe to wheat production estimate \| The Western Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5092-usda-takes-axe-to-wheat-production-estimate-the-western-producer.md) | -14.4% | -16.5% |
| WHEAT | 2024-03-29 | [EU sees soft wheat production falling to four-year low in 2024/25](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31152-eu-sees-soft-wheat-production-falling-to-four-year-low-in-2024-25.md) | -1.3% | +1.9% |
| KWHEAT | 2017-11-30 | [USDA Reports Offer Early Snapshots of 2018/19 U.S. Winter Wheat Crop - U.S. Wheat Associates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68036-usda-reports-offer-early-snapshots-of-2018-19-u-s-winter-wheat-crop-u-s-wheat.md) | -1.8% | +3.3% |
| KWHEAT | 2023-04-12 | [The USDA raised its consumption forecast and lowered its estimate of wheat stocks, but prices continued to fall](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36464-the-usda-raised-its-consumption-forecast-and-lowered-its-estimate-of-wheat.md) | +1.5% | +4.4% |
| KWHEAT | 2024-01-12 | [W1 Wheat Update: EU Soft Wheat Production Forecast Drops for 204/25 Season; India Projects Record Wheat Production of 114 MMT for 2023/24 MY](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32061-w1-wheat-update-eu-soft-wheat-production-forecast-drops-for-204-25-season-india.md) | -1.3% | -2.4% |

## Sources

- uswheat.org: https://uswheat.org/wheatletter/early-estimates-expect-2018-19-wheat-production-to-fall-in-the-black-sea/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.