# China's most powerful weapon in Trump trade war may backfire

> Soybeans are emerging as the most powerful bargaining chip in escalating US-China trade tensions. China takes about a third of the US soybean crop, mainly for feed for its pig herd. Beijing is reportedly studying restrictions on soybean imports as retaliation for US tariffs on washing machines and solar panels.

- Date: 2018-02-14 · published 2018-02-14T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region US · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/66378-china-s-most-powerful-weapon-in-trump-trade-war-may-backfire
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

The risk of Chinese restrictions on US soybeans threatens a major export outlet and could widen basis and weigh on futures. Brazil and Argentina would likely capture displaced Chinese demand.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bearish ▼
- SOY: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2017-01-20 | [Boeing and beans on China's blacklist if US trade tensions worsen](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72862-boeing-and-beans-on-china-s-blacklist-if-us-trade-tensions-worsen.md) | -1.9% | -2.5% |
| SOY | 2026-09-24 | [US farmers push for China commitments on imports as Trump and Xi talk trade](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14547-us-farmers-push-for-china-commitments-on-imports-as-trump-and-xi-talk-trade.md) | -1.9% | -4.3% |
| SOY | 2017-03-28 | [Pork and beans could take brunt of China-U.S. trade dispute](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71849-pork-and-beans-could-take-brunt-of-china-u-s-trade-dispute.md) | -3.4% | -1.7% |
| SOY | 2019-05-31 | [Target Trump's base if trade spat worsens, Mexican farm lobby says \| Farmtario](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59076-target-trump-s-base-if-trade-spat-worsens-mexican-farm-lobby-says-farmtario.md) | -2.3% | -0.1% |
| SOY | 2020-07-15 | [China's yuan firms on weaker dollar but renewed Sino-U.S. worries cap gains \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52325-china-s-yuan-firms-on-weaker-dollar-but-renewed-sino-u-s-worries-cap-gains.md) | +1.6% | -0.5% |
| SBM | 2017-01-20 | [Boeing and beans on China's blacklist if US trade tensions worsen](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72862-boeing-and-beans-on-china-s-blacklist-if-us-trade-tensions-worsen.md) | -1.7% | -1.8% |
| SBM | 2017-03-28 | [Pork and beans could take brunt of China-U.S. trade dispute](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71849-pork-and-beans-could-take-brunt-of-china-u-s-trade-dispute.md) | -2.4% | -0.6% |
| SBM | 2022-03-30 | [SOYBEANS: May Have Taken Out Too Much War Premium; Demand Remains Strong — The Hightower Report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42370-soybeans-may-have-taken-out-too-much-war-premium-demand-remains-strong-the.md) | -0.4% | -3.5% |

## Sources

- afr.com: https://www.afr.com/world/chinas-most-powerful-weapon-in-trump-trade-war-may-backfire-20180214-h0w313

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.