# Currency markets send a warning on the US economy

> Lawrence Summers writes that the US dollar has fallen nearly 10% on a trade-weighted basis and over 10% against the euro, despite factors that would normally support it. He notes that US 10-year yields sit about 230 basis points above German yields, implying markets expect a dollar decline of over 25% over the next decade. He warns the weakness is magnified by newly announced steel and aluminium tariffs.

- Date: 2018-03-04 · published 2018-03-04T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/66191-currency-markets-send-a-warning-on-the-us-economy
- Commodities: [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md)

## Why it matters

A sustained dollar decline supports dollar-priced commodities, while tariff-driven trade tensions could disrupt export flows and sentiment in agricultural markets. The combined signal points to a risk-off warning for the US economy.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DXY | 2020-08-31 | [Market economists tip Australian currency to hit US80¢](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51891-market-economists-tip-australian-currency-to-hit-us80.md) | +0.1% | +1.4% |
| DXY | 2024-07-31 | [Currency markets: Banks get bullish on the British pound](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29539-currency-markets-banks-get-bullish-on-the-british-pound.md) | -0.5% | -1.9% |
| DXY | 2024-08-29 | [Sterling's stunning rally keeps twitchy currency markets on edge](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29064-sterling-s-stunning-rally-keeps-twitchy-currency-markets-on-edge.md) | +0.5% | -0.7% |
| DXY | 2019-06-19 | [Asia markets: The Fed, US-China trade, currencies in focus](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9812-asia-markets-the-fed-us-china-trade-currencies-in-focus.md) | -1.1% | -0.9% |
| DXY | 2020-03-09 | [US dollar market sees major sell off as currency traders buy EUR](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10776-us-dollar-market-sees-major-sell-off-as-currency-traders-buy-eur.md) | +3.2% | +6.6% |

## Sources

- www-ft-com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu: https://www-ft-com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/content/de57a6a2-1e32-11e8-a748-5da7d696ccab

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.