# Iran war shock to flip market to deficit in 2026: analysts

> A Reuters poll of eight analysts expects oil demand to exceed supply by 750,000 barrels per day on average this year, reversing a previous forecast of surplus. The shortfall is expected to peak in the second quarter at around 3 million bpd, driven by the Iran war shutting Hormuz flows and removing production.

- Date: 2018-03-09 · published 2018-03-09T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/66177-iran-war-shock-to-flip-market-to-deficit-in-2026-analysts
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md)

## Why it matters

A swing from surplus to deficit tightens the crude balance and supports prices through the year. Higher energy costs raise the cost of feed production, transport and biofuel feedstocks.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bullish ▲
- BRENT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2024-01-23 | [Oil Market Report - December 2024 – Analysis - IEA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32023-oil-market-report-december-2024-analysis-iea.md) | +2.9% | +4.5% |
| BRENT | 2026-04-01 | [Iran war shock drives steepest hike yet in oil price forecasts](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20327-iran-war-shock-drives-steepest-hike-yet-in-oil-price-forecasts.md) | -12.2% | -1.1% |
| BRENT | 2026-05-13 | [IEA warns of global oil deficit as Iran conflict hits output](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19448-iea-warns-of-global-oil-deficit-as-iran-conflict-hits-output.md) | +3.1% | -13.8% |
| BRENT | 2024-03-25 | [EIA expects WTI to average nearly $85/bl in 2Q \| Latest Market News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31371-eia-expects-wti-to-average-nearly-85-bl-in-2q-latest-market-news.md) | +1.9% | +2.3% |
| BRENT | 2020-07-30 | [Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52263-comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market.md) | +3.2% | +4.8% |
| WTI | 2024-01-23 | [Oil Market Report - December 2024 – Analysis - IEA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32023-oil-market-report-december-2024-analysis-iea.md) | +2.5% | +4.4% |
| WTI | 2026-04-01 | [Iran war shock drives steepest hike yet in oil price forecasts](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20327-iran-war-shock-drives-steepest-hike-yet-in-oil-price-forecasts.md) | -6.6% | +6.7% |
| WTI | 2026-05-13 | [IEA warns of global oil deficit as Iran conflict hits output](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19448-iea-warns-of-global-oil-deficit-as-iran-conflict-hits-output.md) | +5.8% | -11.6% |

## Sources

- tradearabia.com: https://www.tradearabia.com/News/413921/Iran-war-shock-to-flip-market-to-deficit-in-2026-analysts

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.