# IEA cuts 2026 oil supply forecast as Mideast recovery slips to 2027

> The IEA cut its 2026 world oil supply forecast to 100.7 mb/d, down 5.7 mb/d year on year, and deferred the Middle East supply recovery to 2027. It also projected 2026 global oil demand to fall by 2.5 mb/d. Observed global inventories have fallen sharply since February.

- Date: 2018-03-09 · published 2018-03-09T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/66170-iea-cuts-2026-oil-supply-forecast-as-mideast-recovery-slips-to-2027
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md)

## Why it matters

Lower supply and falling inventories point to tighter crude markets and firmer energy costs, which affect diesel and freight for feed. Demand destruction partly offsets the supply loss.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bullish ▲
- BRENT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTI | 2023-08-01 | [EIA forecasts crude oil prices will increase through 2024 as demand rises above supply](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35198-eia-forecasts-crude-oil-prices-will-increase-through-2024-as-demand-rises-above.md) | +0.2% | -1.6% |
| WTI | 2023-09-13 | [OPEC+ cuts to tighten oil market sharply in fourth quarter, IEA says \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34016-opec-cuts-to-tighten-oil-market-sharply-in-fourth-quarter-iea-says-reuters.md) | +2.6% | -3.3% |
| WTI | 2026-03-12 | [World faces largest-ever oil supply disruption on Middle East war, IEA says \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9389-world-faces-largest-ever-oil-supply-disruption-on-middle-east-war-iea-says.md) | +10.6% | +13.9% |
| WTI | 2024-09-10 | [US EIA lifts oil demand forecast, says prices will recover to above $80/bbl \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10170-us-eia-lifts-oil-demand-forecast-says-prices-will-recover-to-above-80-bbl.md) | +2.1% | +11.9% |
| WTI | 2022-06-27 | [OPEC+ lowers 2022 market surplus forecast to 1 million bps – Reuters — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41113-opec-lowers-2022-market-surplus-forecast-to-1-million-bps-reuters-octa.md) | +1.0% | -9.0% |
| BRENT | 2023-08-01 | [EIA forecasts crude oil prices will increase through 2024 as demand rises above supply](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35198-eia-forecasts-crude-oil-prices-will-increase-through-2024-as-demand-rises-above.md) | +0.6% | -0.6% |
| BRENT | 2023-09-13 | [OPEC+ cuts to tighten oil market sharply in fourth quarter, IEA says \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34016-opec-cuts-to-tighten-oil-market-sharply-in-fourth-quarter-iea-says-reuters.md) | +2.6% | -3.9% |
| BRENT | 2026-03-12 | [World faces largest-ever oil supply disruption on Middle East war, IEA says \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9389-world-faces-largest-ever-oil-supply-disruption-on-middle-east-war-iea-says.md) | +23.1% | +16.8% |

## Sources

- tradearabia.com: https://www.tradearabia.com/News/486080/IEA-cuts-2026-oil-supply-forecast-as-Mideast-recovery-slips-to-2027

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.