# Black Sea competition impacting Australian wheat prices: Rabo - Grain Central

> Rabobank strategist Stefan Vogel says tighter global wheat stocks outside China and dry US winter wheat areas are lifting world prices, with CBOT up about 20% since mid-January. He argues Black Sea origin competition will ultimately determine Australian wheat price prospects in Southeast Asia.

- Date: 2018-03-15 · published 2018-03-15T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region Black Sea · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/66043-black-sea-competition-impacting-australian-wheat-prices-rabo-grain-central
- Commodities: [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Tighter stocks and US drought support wheat prices in the near term, while low-cost Black Sea supply caps the upside in export markets.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| KWHEAT | 2025-09-16 | [Asia Millers Buy More U.S. Wheat on Competitive Prices, Black Sea Delays](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8334-asia-millers-buy-more-u-s-wheat-on-competitive-prices-black-sea-delays.md) | -2.3% | -6.4% |
| KWHEAT | 2018-03-22 | [No hike in Indian wheat tariff good news for Australia - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65967-no-hike-in-indian-wheat-tariff-good-news-for-australia-grain-central.md) | -1.0% | +6.4% |
| KWHEAT | 2020-10-27 | [Demand-driven wheat rally supported by production uncertainty - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50675-demand-driven-wheat-rally-supported-by-production-uncertainty-grain-central.md) | +0.2% | -0.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2023-03-24 | [GRAINS-Soy at 5-month low on big Brazil crop, wheat rallies on Black Sea doubts \| Kitco News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36887-grains-soy-at-5-month-low-on-big-brazil-crop-wheat-rallies-on-black-sea-doubts.md) | +6.3% | +2.6% |
| KWHEAT | 2018-11-27 | [IGC Data Shows U.S. Wheat Prices in a Rare Position - U.S. Wheat Associates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62068-igc-data-shows-u-s-wheat-prices-in-a-rare-position-u-s-wheat-associates.md) | +4.2% | +6.7% |
| WHEAT | 2025-09-16 | [Asia Millers Buy More U.S. Wheat on Competitive Prices, Black Sea Delays](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8334-asia-millers-buy-more-u-s-wheat-on-competitive-prices-black-sea-delays.md) | +0.3% | +1.5% |
| WHEAT | 2018-03-22 | [No hike in Indian wheat tariff good news for Australia - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65967-no-hike-in-indian-wheat-tariff-good-news-for-australia-grain-central.md) | +0.1% | +4.9% |
| WHEAT | 2017-05-17 | [China the hero market for Australian barley and wheat - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71077-china-the-hero-market-for-australian-barley-and-wheat-grain-central.md) | +3.0% | +2.1% |

## Sources

- graincentral.com: https://www.graincentral.com/trade/black-sea-competition-impacting-australian-wheat-prices-rabo/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.