# Diversity of El Niño Variability Makes Prediction Challenging - Eos

> An Eos article by S.-W. Yeh discusses how El Niño events differ in spatial pattern and amplitude, and why this makes prediction challenging. It summarizes a Reviews of Geophysics paper on atmospheric impacts of El Niño under a warming climate.

- Date: 2018-03-26 · published 2018-03-26T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/65928-diversity-of-el-nino-variability-makes-prediction-challenging-eos
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Greater uncertainty in El Niño impacts reduces confidence in seasonal crop forecasts, which can keep weather risk premiums in grain and oilseed prices. The article is analytical and does not describe a new supply event.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- CORN: neutral
- WHEAT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2019-05-13 | [WASDE Predicts Milk Production and prices Up for 2020 • Northwest Iowa Dairy Outlook • Iowa State University Extension and Outreach](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59085-wasde-predicts-milk-production-and-prices-up-for-2020-northwest-iowa-dairy.md) | +6.9% | +11.9% |
| CORN | 2017-01-20 | [County-by-county variability of bioenergy crop yields in the U.S.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72840-county-by-county-variability-of-bioenergy-crop-yields-in-the-u-s.md) | +0.4% | +1.9% |
| CORN | 2021-03-02 | [Grain prices trend higher with more demand and climate variability: ABARES \| Farm Online \| ACT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48062-grain-prices-trend-higher-with-more-demand-and-climate-variability-abares-farm.md) | +6.1% | +5.5% |
| CORN | 2020-02-27 | [Big data helps farmers adapt to climate variability \| EurekAlert!](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54445-big-data-helps-farmers-adapt-to-climate-variability-eurekalert.md) | +2.6% | -3.7% |
| CORN | 2018-03-28 | [Weather phenomena such as El Niño affect up to two-thirds of the world’s harvests \| Aalto University](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65926-weather-phenomena-such-as-el-nino-affect-up-to-two-thirds-of-the-world-s.md) | +3.3% | +4.9% |
| SOY | 2017-01-20 | [County-by-county variability of bioenergy crop yields in the U.S.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72840-county-by-county-variability-of-bioenergy-crop-yields-in-the-u-s.md) | -1.9% | -2.5% |
| SOY | 2026-01-13 | [January USDA reports with plenty of surprises in both directions • Ag Decision Maker • Iowa State University Extension and Outreach](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7095-january-usda-reports-with-plenty-of-surprises-in-both-directions-ag-decision.md) | +1.9% | +8.7% |
| SOY | 2020-02-27 | [Big data helps farmers adapt to climate variability \| EurekAlert!](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54445-big-data-helps-farmers-adapt-to-climate-variability-eurekalert.md) | +2.0% | +0.1% |

## Sources

- eos.org: https://eos.org/editors-vox/diversity-of-el-nino-variability-makes-prediction-challenging

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.