# BRL: Growing presidential election risks spells more downside trouble - ING — Octa

> ING's Gustavo Rangel says the BRL remains weak on early uncertainty over the October presidential election, with the market-preferred candidate Alckmin polling poorly. ING expects Brazilian agricultural exporters to repatriate seasonal earnings near 3.40 but sees rising risk of a move above 3.50.

- Date: 2018-04-20 · published 2018-04-20T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/65705-brl-growing-presidential-election-risks-spells-more-downside-trouble-ing-octa
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

Agricultural exporters selling dollars to repatriate earnings affects the real, and a weaker real encourages Brazilian export flows that compete with U.S. feed grains and meals.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼
- USDBRL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2017-03-30 | [BRL: downside risks, moderate decline expected - BBH — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72188-brl-downside-risks-moderate-decline-expected-bbh-octa.md) | -0.8% | +2.5% |
| USDBRL | 2022-10-31 | [Brazil's real down after Lula wins presidential election; Bolsonaro yet to concede](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39344-brazil-s-real-down-after-lula-wins-presidential-election-bolsonaro-yet-to.md) | -5.8% | -1.1% |
| USDBRL | 2026-07-29 | [Rabobank flags BRL downside as rate differentials narrow and fiscal risks rise ahead of 2026 elections - VT Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18565-rabobank-flags-brl-downside-as-rate-differentials-narrow-and-fiscal-risks-rise.md) | -0.0% | +0.7% |
| USDBRL | 2019-03-25 | [Brazilian Real Report - GBP/BRL Surges To 5-Month Best Rate As Former President Arrest Throws Pension Reforms Into Doubt](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60307-brazilian-real-report-gbp-brl-surges-to-5-month-best-rate-as-former-president.md) | -0.1% | +0.9% |
| USDBRL | 2026-10-01 | [Brazilian Real Under Pressure Ahead of Election](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4935-brazilian-real-under-pressure-ahead-of-election.md) | -3.5% | +4.1% |
| SOY | 2024-03-27 | [USD to remain resilient, downside risks to the GBP in the months ahead – HSBC — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31466-usd-to-remain-resilient-downside-risks-to-the-gbp-in-the-months-ahead-hsbc-octa.md) | -1.4% | -2.8% |
| SOY | 2022-06-20 | [US dollar to remain resilient amid the re-pricing higher in Fed's rate expectations – ING — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41145-us-dollar-to-remain-resilient-amid-the-re-pricing-higher-in-fed-s-rate.md) | -4.2% | -13.2% |
| SOY | 2025-12-23 | [Real slides on election fears, seasonal dollar outflows](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21717-real-slides-on-election-fears-seasonal-dollar-outflows.md) | -0.7% | +1.0% |

## Sources

- octaafrica.net: https://www.octaafrica.net/markets/news/view/560979/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.