# El Niño–Southern Oscillation likely to remain neutral through winter - Grain Central

> The Australian Bureau of Meteorology reports that ENSO remains neutral and is expected to stay so through the southern winter, with only two of eight models approaching El Niño thresholds by September. The Indian Ocean Dipole is neutral, with three of six models suggesting a possible negative phase in winter that typically brings above-average rain to southern Australia.

- Date: 2018-04-25 · published 2018-04-25T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Australia · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/65447-el-nino-southern-oscillation-likely-to-remain-neutral-through-winter-grain
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

Neutral ENSO and a possible negative IOD point to favorable rainfall prospects for Australian winter crops, which tends to limit wheat and barley price upside from weather risk.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bearish ▼
- BARLEY: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2019-05-29 | [Southern winter crop off to a promising start - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59062-southern-winter-crop-off-to-a-promising-start-grain-central.md) | +9.6% | +15.3% |
| WHEAT | 2019-05-01 | [Strong chance of El Niño developing, but likely to be short-lived: BOM - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59013-strong-chance-of-el-nino-developing-but-likely-to-be-short-lived-bom-grain.md) | -4.6% | -9.2% |
| WHEAT | 2018-04-16 | [Weather, politics remain unpredictable as winter sowing nears - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65451-weather-politics-remain-unpredictable-as-winter-sowing-nears-grain-central.md) | +3.1% | +2.4% |
| WHEAT | 2018-11-12 | [WA winter crop surges back to 15.653Mt - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61994-wa-winter-crop-surges-back-to-15-653mt-grain-central.md) | -0.2% | +0.8% |
| WHEAT | 2020-05-14 | [Weather models point to possible La Nina in spring - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53051-weather-models-point-to-possible-la-nina-in-spring-grain-central.md) | +0.4% | +1.0% |

## Sources

- graincentral.com: https://www.graincentral.com/weather/el-nino-southern-oscillation-likely-to-remain-neutral-through-winter/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.