# Geopolitical shifts drive fertiliser market volatility – Ravensdown

> Ravensdown reports that EU tariffs on Russian fertiliser have redirected product to Brazil, China and India. The EU carbon border mechanism triggered a rush on high-carbon products before January 1, and North African urea exports to Europe pushed prices up about 15% in a week. US tariffs on most fertiliser were lifted in November and India's urea buying has swung prices between $400 and $500 per tonne.

- Date: 2025-12-27 · published 2025-12-27T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/6498-geopolitical-shifts-drive-fertiliser-market-volatility-ravensdown
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

Trade diversions and policy-driven buying spikes are making urea and DAP prices volatile, raising input costs for feed grain producers. Uncertainty in fertilizer pricing feeds through to corn and soybean production costs.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- CORN: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2026-05-14 | [Landmark E15 Legislative Shifts and Market Volatility Dominate Agricultural Outlook - Oklahoma Farm Report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19339-landmark-e15-legislative-shifts-and-market-volatility-dominate-agricultural.md) | -0.4% | -7.9% |
| CORN | 2025-12-05 | [Fertilizer market November/December 2025 market report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5186-fertilizer-market-november-december-2025-market-report.md) | -0.4% | -0.0% |
| CORN | 2025-12-04 | [Fertilizer markets soften but remain constrained by trade policies](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5185-fertilizer-markets-soften-but-remain-constrained-by-trade-policies.md) | +0.4% | +0.1% |
| CORN | 2019-06-10 | [Federal Register
       :: 
      Modifications to Fuel Regulations To Provide Flexibility for E15; Modifications to RFS RIN Market Regulations](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58475-federal-register-modifications-to-fuel-regulations-to-provide-flexibility-for.md) | +5.9% | +4.8% |
| CORN | 2021-12-02 | [Nitrogen fertilizer shortage expected to drive down yields worldwide \| The Western Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43517-nitrogen-fertilizer-shortage-expected-to-drive-down-yields-worldwide-the.md) | +7.3% | +3.2% |
| SOY | 2018-08-30 | [Federal Register
       :: 
      Market Facilitation Program](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63522-federal-register-market-facilitation-program.md) | +0.4% | +3.9% |
| SOY | 2019-01-22 | [The Market Facilitation Program (Trade Mitigation) and the Government Shutdown](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61079-the-market-facilitation-program-trade-mitigation-and-the-government-shutdown.md) | +0.7% | -1.7% |
| SOY | 2021-12-13 | [WASDE, EPA biofuel news drive soybean market - McKeany-Flavell](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9258-wasde-epa-biofuel-news-drive-soybean-market-mckeany-flavell.md) | +1.4% | +8.4% |

## Sources

- ruralnewsgroup.co.nz: https://www.ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/rural-news/rural-general-news/global-fertiliser-market-volatility-ravensdown-outlook

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.