# Winter crop weather prospects hard to call + VIDEO - Grain Central

> Grain Central reports that CottonInfo/AgEcon climate risk lead Jon Welsh sees a high degree of scatter in weather models, making winter crop prospects in eastern Australia hard to call. Soil moisture is very low, and a possible negative Indian Ocean Dipole conflicts with El Niño signals from the Pacific.

- Date: 2018-05-09 · published 2018-05-09T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Australia · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/64963-winter-crop-weather-prospects-hard-to-call-video-grain-central
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

Low soil moisture and dry-leaning ENSO signals in Australia could limit winter crop planting and future barley and wheat exports, which would support prices for those grains.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2018-10-26 | [Dry September cuts winter crop prospects by 15pc: ABARES - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62493-dry-september-cuts-winter-crop-prospects-by-15pc-abares-grain-central.md) | +0.8% | -3.7% |
| WHEAT | 2017-10-09 | [Victorian, NSW crops need rain to consolidate yield prospects - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68404-victorian-nsw-crops-need-rain-to-consolidate-yield-prospects-grain-central.md) | +4.9% | +0.5% |
| WHEAT | 2020-09-29 | [More rain required to lock in winter-crop potential - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51041-more-rain-required-to-lock-in-winter-crop-potential-grain-central.md) | +2.2% | +4.7% |
| WHEAT | 2023-12-05 | [Wet delays European winter-crop planting - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32655-wet-delays-european-winter-crop-planting-grain-central.md) | -3.3% | +2.4% |
| WHEAT | 2018-12-04 | [Winter crop production down after poor start to spring: ABARES - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61530-winter-crop-production-down-after-poor-start-to-spring-abares-grain-central.md) | -0.3% | +1.5% |

## Sources

- graincentral.com: https://www.graincentral.com/weather/winter-crop-weather-prospects-hard-to-call-video/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.