# El Niño pattern could emerge by 2018-19 winter: U.S. forecaster

> A U.S. government weather forecaster said on Thursday that an El Niño could emerge by the 2018-19 winter. The last El Niño, a periodic warming of Pacific surface waters, was linked to crop damage, fires and flash floods in 2016.

- Date: 2018-05-10 · published 2018-05-10T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/64959-el-nino-pattern-could-emerge-by-2018-19-winter-u-s-forecaster
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

A developing El Niño raises the risk of drought in key producing regions such as Australia, Southeast Asia and India, which could tighten supplies of grains and oilseeds and support prices later in the crop year.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: neutral
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2023-06-08 | [Extreme weather expected as El Nino climate pattern returns, US forecaster says \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35406-extreme-weather-expected-as-el-nino-climate-pattern-returns-us-forecaster-says.md) | -0.0% | +2.9% |
| WHEAT | 2018-09-19 | [El Niño looming \| 2018-09-19 \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62946-el-nino-looming-2018-09-19-world-grain.md) | +0.7% | +8.5% |
| WHEAT | 2024-05-09 | [El Nino to end by June, La Nina seen in second half of 2024, says U.S. forecaster \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30149-el-nino-to-end-by-june-la-nina-seen-in-second-half-of-2024-says-u-s-forecaster.md) | +2.0% | +6.5% |
| WHEAT | 2021-08-01 | [La Niña climate pattern should return this fall and last through winter. Here's what to expect.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45982-la-nina-climate-pattern-should-return-this-fall-and-last-through-winter-here-s.md) | +1.8% | +2.3% |
| WHEAT | 2023-09-01 | [Global El Niño forecasts predict a Very Strong event for 2023/24](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34476-global-el-nino-forecasts-predict-a-very-strong-event-for-2023-24.md) | +0.1% | +1.1% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-06-08 | [Extreme weather expected as El Nino climate pattern returns, US forecaster says \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35406-extreme-weather-expected-as-el-nino-climate-pattern-returns-us-forecaster-says.md) | +2.1% | +14.6% |
| PALMOIL | 2018-09-19 | [El Niño looming \| 2018-09-19 \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62946-el-nino-looming-2018-09-19-world-grain.md) | -0.6% | -0.6% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-09-01 | [Global El Niño forecasts predict a Very Strong event for 2023/24](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34476-global-el-nino-forecasts-predict-a-very-strong-event-for-2023-24.md) | -4.5% | -7.0% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-weather-elnino/el-nio-pattern-could-emerge-by-2018-19-winter-us-forecaster-idUSKBN1IB202/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.