# USDA supply/demand forecast could factor in Mexico, China tariffs - The Business Times

> USDA chief economist Rob Johansson said the department will factor China's and Mexico's retaliatory tariffs into its next global supply and demand report if they take effect, assuming they persist through the year. China's extra 25% duty on more than 500 US goods, including soybeans, is set for July 6, and Mexico has already imposed about $3 billion in tariffs on US products.

- Date: 2018-06-29 · published 2018-06-29T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region US · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/64550-usda-supply-demand-forecast-could-factor-in-mexico-china-tariffs-the-business
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md), [Lean Hogs](https://feedsoft.ai/c/HOGS.md)

## Why it matters

Tariffs that hold through fall would divert Chinese soybean purchases to South America and widen US soybean price discounts, bearish for US soy and pork export demand.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bearish ▼
- SOY: bearish ▼
- HOGS: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2018-07-05 | 1 | +4.6% | 4.5 | USDA signaled it would factor the China tariffs due July 6 into its supply and demand report, so the market was repricing the trade shock just before the tariffs took effect. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2022-04-22 | [Unusual Drop in China's Soy Demand Could Precede Pork Contraction - Pork Business](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41838-unusual-drop-in-china-s-soy-demand-could-precede-pork-contraction-pork-business.md) | -2.4% | -3.3% |
| SOY | 2020-11-20 | [China Targets U.S. Farm Imports With Tariffs on Soy, Corn - Pork Business](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50015-china-targets-u-s-farm-imports-with-tariffs-on-soy-corn-pork-business.md) | +1.2% | +3.6% |
| SOY | 2026-02-22 | [Xi gains upper hand before Trump summit after US tariff reversal - The Business Times](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14603-xi-gains-upper-hand-before-trump-summit-after-us-tariff-reversal-the-business.md) | +1.7% | +2.1% |
| SOY | 2018-04-05 | [All the Threats and Tariffs in the U.S.-China Trade Conflict](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65378-all-the-threats-and-tariffs-in-the-u-s-china-trade-conflict.md) | +3.2% | +1.7% |
| SOY | 2021-09-07 | [China's August soybean imports fall on flat demand - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45066-china-s-august-soybean-imports-fall-on-flat-demand-markets-business-recorder.md) | -0.8% | -3.7% |
| SBM | 2022-04-22 | [Unusual Drop in China's Soy Demand Could Precede Pork Contraction - Pork Business](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41838-unusual-drop-in-china-s-soy-demand-could-precede-pork-contraction-pork-business.md) | -5.5% | -9.8% |
| SBM | 2018-07-08 | [China’s demand for protein could increase rapeseed prices  : The Daily Digest](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64131-china-s-demand-for-protein-could-increase-rapeseed-prices-the-daily-digest.md) | -3.2% | -2.1% |
| SBM | 2021-09-07 | [China's August soybean imports fall on flat demand - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45066-china-s-august-soybean-imports-fall-on-flat-demand-markets-business-recorder.md) | +1.7% | -3.9% |

## Sources

- businesstimes.com.sg: https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/usda-supplydemand-forecast-could-factor-mexico-china-tariffs

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.