# IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | 2018 June Quick Look

> The IRI June update says the tropical Pacific is currently ENSO-neutral, with a 50% chance of El Niño developing in fall rising to 65% by winter 2018-19. An El Niño watch has been issued. Models collectively favor weak El Niño in late summer, possibly growing to moderate strength.

- Date: 2018-06-19 · published 2018-06-19T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/64458-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2018-june-quick
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Rising odds of a moderate El Niño by winter could tighten supplies of Australian wheat and Southeast Asian palm oil in 2019. Traders may build some risk premium, though the effect is still distant.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2019-06-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2019 June Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58501-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-june-quick.md) | +1.3% | -1.6% |
| CORN | 2020-06-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2020 June Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52522-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2020-june-quick.md) | -2.4% | -0.2% |
| CORN | 2021-06-18 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| June 2021 Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46479-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-june-2021-quick.md) | +0.3% | -5.2% |
| CORN | 2022-07-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| July 2022 Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40389-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-july-2022-quick.md) | -9.0% | -1.2% |
| CORN | 2019-03-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2019 March Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60007-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-march-quick.md) | -0.3% | -3.4% |
| SOY | 2021-06-18 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| June 2021 Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46479-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-june-2021-quick.md) | +3.1% | +9.4% |
| SOY | 2020-06-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2020 June Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52522-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2020-june-quick.md) | -0.4% | +2.9% |
| SOY | 2022-07-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| July 2022 Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40389-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-july-2022-quick.md) | -1.6% | -0.2% |

## Sources

- iri.columbia.edu: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2018-june-quick-look/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.