# Looking into the crystal ball - Rice Farming

> USDA-ERS economist Nathan Childs outlined the 2018-19 rice outlook: global production projected at 487.8 million tons milled, up 450,000 tons, with ending stocks of 143.8 million tons. U.S. 2018 production is expected to rise 5% to 213 million cwt on an 18% acreage increase, and U.S. 2018-19 ending stocks are forecast at 42.3 million cwt.

- Date: 2018-07-26 · published 2018-07-26T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/64097-looking-into-the-crystal-ball-rice-farming
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md)

## Why it matters

A larger U.S. crop and a 31% jump in projected carryout point to ample rice supply and weaker prices, with sluggish exports reinforcing the bearish balance.

## Read by commodity

- RICE: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2018-08-09 | 5 | -8.2% | -3.0 | USDA-ERS outlook of a 5% rise in 2018 U.S. production on an 18% acreage increase and large global stocks signals ample supply, a bearish factor for U.S. rough rice futures. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2016-12-01 | [Exports lag - Rice Farming](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73519-exports-lag-rice-farming.md) | +2.3% | -4.8% |
| RICE | 2026-02-27 | [Rice Outlook: February 2026 - Rice Farming](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12571-rice-outlook-february-2026-rice-farming.md) | +8.5% | +10.3% |
| RICE | 2018-01-15 | [Winter hibernation - Rice Farming](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10605-winter-hibernation-rice-farming.md) | +5.2% | +7.0% |
| RICE | 2019-03-15 | [Large rice stocks continue to weigh heavily on the market, prices - Rice Farming](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60168-large-rice-stocks-continue-to-weigh-heavily-on-the-market-prices-rice-farming.md) | +4.8% | -2.7% |
| RICE | 2020-05-15 | [Much stronger foundation - Rice Farming](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7504-much-stronger-foundation-rice-farming.md) | -7.9% | -7.8% |

## Sources

- ricefarming.com: https://www.ricefarming.com/departments/feature/looking-into-the-crystal-ball/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.