# Greatest Unknowns: Corn Final Yields & Exports

> DTN analyst Joel Karlin notes corn futures have rallied at least 30 cents since July 12 on fund short covering, lower coarse grain estimates in the EU and Black Sea, and the lowest stocks-to-use projections in five years. He estimates 2018/19 U.S. ending stocks could be at least 130 million bushels below USDA's May projection, depending on yield and export assumptions.

- Date: 2018-07-31 · published 2018-07-31T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/64050-greatest-unknowns-corn-final-yields-and-exports
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

If USDA's 174 bpa yield is too low versus the trade's 177-178 estimate, the stocks outlook could tighten further or ease depending on exports, so yield and export pace will set corn price direction. Lower projected stocks are supportive for corn and feed costs.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2023-06-23 | [Corn Ratings and Final Yields](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13273-corn-ratings-and-final-yields.md) | -8.6% | -15.1% |
| CORN | 2020-08-21 | [Pro Farmer Estimates National Corn and Soybeans Yields Below USDA Forecasts](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51456-pro-farmer-estimates-national-corn-and-soybeans-yields-below-usda-forecasts.md) | +3.5% | +11.2% |
| CORN | 2026-01-07 | [Final Harvest Yield Analytics: Corn vs Soybeans Ahead of January USDA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13028-final-harvest-yield-analytics-corn-vs-soybeans-ahead-of-january-usda.md) | -3.5% | -1.8% |
| CORN | 2017-07-20 | [USDA exports – Sales surge for corn, soybeans and wheat](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69823-usda-exports-sales-surge-for-corn-soybeans-and-wheat.md) | -1.5% | -5.9% |
| CORN | 2025-11-12 | [Corn exports from Ukraine exceeded 2.5 mln tons](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14162-corn-exports-from-ukraine-exceeded-2-5-mln-tons.md) | +2.0% | +1.6% |

## Sources

- dtnpf.com: https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/blogs/fundamentally-speaking/blog-post/2018/07/31/greatest-unknowns-corn-final-yields

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.