# Soybean Prices Near Decade-Low as China Tariffs Hammer Supply Forecast

> USDA projected 2018-19 U.S. soybean ending stocks at a would-be record 580 million bushels, about 50% above its prior estimate and above analyst expectations. The increase reflects lower export projections tied to China's tariffs.

- Date: 2018-07-12 · published 2018-07-12T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/63999-soybean-prices-near-decade-low-as-china-tariffs-hammer-supply-forecast
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

A record carryout signals weak demand for U.S. beans, keeping cash soybean prices near decade lows and pressuring soymeal and oil values.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2018-07-12 | 5 | -6.9% | -3.0 | USDA's July 12 WASDE projected record 580 million bushel 2018-19 soybean ending stocks (~50% above prior), driven by cut export forecasts, pushing prices to near decade lows. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2024-04-04 | [Corn and soybean prices extend losses on oversupply forecasts](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30757-corn-and-soybean-prices-extend-losses-on-oversupply-forecasts.md) | -1.5% | -2.2% |
| SOY | 2018-07-12 | [China cuts soybean import forecast in face of trade war](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63895-china-cuts-soybean-import-forecast-in-face-of-trade-war.md) | +1.5% | +7.7% |
| SOY | 2018-08-10 | [As soybean futures fall, farmer says tariffs have devastated industry](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63571-as-soybean-futures-fall-farmer-says-tariffs-have-devastated-industry.md) | -0.3% | -6.3% |
| SOY | 2018-11-08 | [USDA slashes China soybean import forecast 9.5%](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62042-usda-slashes-china-soybean-import-forecast-9-5.md) | +0.3% | +5.6% |
| SOY | 2026-04-20 | [China sees lower soybean, pork imports in 2026 and over next decade, report shows - Grainews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19724-china-sees-lower-soybean-pork-imports-in-2026-and-over-next-decade-report-shows.md) | -0.3% | +0.8% |

## Sources

- wsj.com: https://www.wsj.com/articles/usda-forecasts-larger-than-expected-soybean-stocks-1531413240?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.