# Look South, ENSO Forecasters! | NOAA Climate.gov

> A University of Oklahoma researcher writes that the South Pacific points to a weak, Central Pacific type El Niño forming this year, citing an NOAA estimate of a 70% chance of El Niño this winter. The post argues this flavor matters for predicting regional impacts.

- Date: 2018-07-27 · published 2018-07-27T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/63937-look-south-enso-forecasters-noaa-climate-gov
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

A weaker Central Pacific El Niño would likely bring smaller drought risk than a strong event, limiting the upside in grain and oilseed prices from weather alone.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- CORN: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2021-07-22 | [ENSO as a climate conductor for global crop yields \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45979-enso-as-a-climate-conductor-for-global-crop-yields-noaa-climate-gov.md) | -2.8% | -2.1% |
| CORN | 2018-10-22 | [Another mild winter? NOAA’s 2018-19 winter outlook \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62468-another-mild-winter-noaa-s-2018-19-winter-outlook-noaa-climate-gov.md) | -1.2% | -6.0% |
| CORN | 2019-12-12 | [December 2019 ENSO update: neutral, rinse, repeat \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55496-december-2019-enso-update-neutral-rinse-repeat-noaa-climate-gov.md) | +5.5% | +5.7% |
| CORN | 2018-10-06 | [How to prepare for an El Niño winter \| Climate and Agriculture in the Southeast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62472-how-to-prepare-for-an-el-nino-winter-climate-and-agriculture-in-the-southeast.md) | -0.3% | -0.4% |
| CORN | 2017-12-13 | [A More-Favorable South America Forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67331-a-more-favorable-south-america-forecast.md) | +2.1% | +2.6% |
| SOY | 2021-07-22 | [ENSO as a climate conductor for global crop yields \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45979-enso-as-a-climate-conductor-for-global-crop-yields-noaa-climate-gov.md) | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| SOY | 2018-10-22 | [Another mild winter? NOAA’s 2018-19 winter outlook \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62468-another-mild-winter-noaa-s-2018-19-winter-outlook-noaa-climate-gov.md) | -1.4% | +4.1% |
| SOY | 2018-04-20 | [South Asian Climate Outlook Forum predicts normal monsoon](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65448-south-asian-climate-outlook-forum-predicts-normal-monsoon.md) | -0.9% | -4.1% |

## Sources

- climate.gov: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/look-south-enso-forecasters

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.