# IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | July Climate Briefing: Models Continue to Predict El Niño in Coming Months

> The IRI July climate briefing reports that equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures in the Nino3.4 region have kept warming, averaging +0.35C over four weeks. Subsurface waters suggest El Niño could be imminent, but winds have not yet shifted to reinforce it, and an El Niño Watch remains in effect.

- Date: 2018-07-30 · published 2018-07-30T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/63936-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-july-climate
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

A developing El Niño raises the risk of drought in key exporters such as Australia, southern Africa and India, and can tighten grain and oilseed supply, supporting prices for corn, wheat and soybeans.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2020-07-21 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| July Climate Briefing: La Niña Watch Issued](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52035-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-july-climate.md) | -0.3% | +2.6% |
| CORN | 2020-08-20 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| August Climate Briefing: La Niña Seeming More Likely](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51518-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-august-climate.md) | +2.7% | +10.2% |
| CORN | 2020-05-26 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| May Climate Briefing: ENSO-Neutral Conditions Dominate](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53045-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-may-climate.md) | +1.3% | +3.0% |
| CORN | 2020-10-23 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| October Climate Briefing: La Niña Comes Knocking](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50562-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-october-climate.md) | +0.8% | +10.6% |
| CORN | 2017-12-27 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| December Climate Briefing: New Year, Same La Niña](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67399-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-december-climate.md) | +0.4% | +1.3% |
| WHEAT | 2020-08-20 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| August Climate Briefing: La Niña Seeming More Likely](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51518-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-august-climate.md) | +3.1% | +11.1% |
| WHEAT | 2019-01-03 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| December Climate Briefing: Atmosphere Resists El Niño  Participation](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61020-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-december-climate.md) | +1.2% | +3.7% |
| WHEAT | 2016-11-22 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| November Climate Briefing: La Niña Arrives, Some Impacts Likely](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73773-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-november-climate.md) | -2.8% | +0.7% |

## Sources

- iri.columbia.edu: https://iri.columbia.edu/news/july-climate-briefing-models-continue-to-predict-el-nino-in-coming-months/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.