# China cuts soybean import forecast in face of trade war

> China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs cut its forecast for soybean imports in the crop year starting October 1 to 93.85 million tonnes, down 1.8 million tonnes or 2% from the prior month's estimate. The reduction was included in its monthly crop report.

- Date: 2018-07-12 · published 2018-07-12T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region China · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/63895-china-cuts-soybean-import-forecast-in-face-of-trade-war
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

A lower Chinese import forecast signals weaker soybean meal demand from the largest buyer, which is bearish for soybeans and soybean meal prices and could weigh on crush margins.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bearish ▼
- SOY: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2018-11-08 | [USDA slashes China soybean import forecast 9.5%](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62042-usda-slashes-china-soybean-import-forecast-9-5.md) | +0.3% | +5.6% |
| SOY | 2025-05-12 | [China forecasts lower soybean imports in 2025/26 on plans to reduce soymeal use — TradingView News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24650-china-forecasts-lower-soybean-imports-in-2025-26-on-plans-to-reduce-soymeal-use.md) | +0.6% | +1.1% |
| SOY | 2024-06-12 | [China May soybean imports fall 11.6% on year](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14742-china-may-soybean-imports-fall-11-6-on-year.md) | -0.3% | -3.0% |
| SOY | 2021-08-12 | [Casde: China cuts 20/2021 soybean imports, demand estimates - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45563-casde-china-cuts-20-2021-soybean-imports-demand-estimates-fastmarkets.md) | -3.4% | -10.4% |
| SOY | 2021-11-24 | [USDA cuts U.S. ag export forecast amid weaker soybean demand](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14976-usda-cuts-u-s-ag-export-forecast-amid-weaker-soybean-demand.md) | -3.5% | +4.4% |
| SBM | 2018-11-08 | [USDA slashes China soybean import forecast 9.5%](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62042-usda-slashes-china-soybean-import-forecast-9-5.md) | -0.7% | +0.4% |
| SBM | 2025-05-12 | [China forecasts lower soybean imports in 2025/26 on plans to reduce soymeal use — TradingView News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24650-china-forecasts-lower-soybean-imports-in-2025-26-on-plans-to-reduce-soymeal-use.md) | +1.3% | +2.3% |
| SBM | 2024-06-12 | [China May soybean imports fall 11.6% on year](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14742-china-may-soybean-imports-fall-11-6-on-year.md) | +0.8% | +2.6% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-crops/china-cuts-soybean-import-forecast-in-face-of-trade-war-idUSKBN1K20GG/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.