# Brazil: Economy still vulnerable - ABN AMRO - Forex Crunch

> ABN AMRO says Brazil faces external and domestic headwinds but is less vulnerable than Turkey because it has a smaller current account deficit and stronger foreign direct investment inflows. The bank flags the fiscal deficit, which has run above 5% of GDP since 2015, as the weakest point. It expects the central bank to hold rates for the rest of 2018 and resume tightening in 2019.

- Date: 2018-08-29 · published 2018-08-29T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/63750-brazil-economy-still-vulnerable-abn-amro-forex-crunch
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

Brazil's fiscal weakness and election uncertainty keep the real exposed to risk-off episodes, which can swing the cost of dollar-priced Brazilian grain and meal. Expected stable Selic rates through 2018 limit near-term currency support from monetary policy.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2018-12-24 | [Brazil: Slower GDP growth in Q4 - Rabobank - Forex Crunch](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61766-brazil-slower-gdp-growth-in-q4-rabobank-forex-crunch.md) | -1.8% | -2.9% |
| USDBRL | 2020-09-16 | [USD/BRL: BCB unable to support the Brazilian real - TDS - Forex Crunch](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51309-usd-brl-bcb-unable-to-support-the-brazilian-real-tds-forex-crunch.md) | +3.5% | +5.6% |
| USDBRL | 2023-08-07 | [Outlook for the Brazilian Real and the real economy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34792-outlook-for-the-brazilian-real-and-the-real-economy.md) | +0.8% | +1.8% |
| USDBRL | 2023-02-08 | [Brazil central bank autonomy becomes political punching bag for Lula](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37530-brazil-central-bank-autonomy-becomes-political-punching-bag-for-lula.md) | -0.3% | -1.2% |
| USDBRL | 2026-03-19 | [Brazilian Real Steady After Copom](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20384-brazilian-real-steady-after-copom.md) | +0.3% | -3.9% |

## Sources

- forexcrunch.com: https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2018/08/29/brazil-economy-still-vulnerable-abn-amro/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.