# Seasonal climate outlook September - November 2018 | Earth Sciences New Zealand | NIWA

> NIWA's seasonal outlook says international models give a 65% chance that the tropical Pacific transitions toward El Niño over September to November 2018, rising to 78% for March to May 2019. The event is not expected to be strong and may lean toward a central Pacific type. The SOI turned negative in August.

- Date: 2018-08-30 · published 2018-08-30T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/63453-seasonal-climate-outlook-september-november-2018-earth-sciences-new-zealand-niwa
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A developing El Niño raises the risk of drought in Australia, Southern Africa and Southeast Asia, which can cut oilseed, palm and grain output and support prices for feed ingredients later in the 2018-19 season.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2025-08-25 | [Global Seasonal Climate Update for September-October-November 2025](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23241-global-seasonal-climate-update-for-september-october-november-2025.md) | +1.9% | +7.4% |
| CORN | 2024-09-27 | [Global Seasonal Climate Update for October-November-December 2024](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28231-global-seasonal-climate-update-for-october-november-december-2024.md) | +2.2% | +1.0% |
| CORN | 2025-09-22 | [Global Seasonal Climate Update for October-November-December 2025](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22791-global-seasonal-climate-update-for-october-november-december-2025.md) | -0.4% | -1.1% |
| CORN | 2026-09-02 | [Global Seasonal Climate Update - Target season: September-October-November 2026 - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17394-global-seasonal-climate-update-target-season-september-october-november-2026.md) | -1.0% | +3.2% |
| CORN | 2018-11-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2018 November Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61967-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2018-november.md) | -1.4% | +8.5% |
| SOY | 2025-08-25 | [Global Seasonal Climate Update for September-October-November 2025](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23241-global-seasonal-climate-update-for-september-october-november-2025.md) | +0.0% | -2.5% |
| SOY | 2024-09-27 | [Global Seasonal Climate Update for October-November-December 2024](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28231-global-seasonal-climate-update-for-october-november-december-2024.md) | +0.5% | -4.3% |
| SOY | 2025-09-22 | [Global Seasonal Climate Update for October-November-December 2025](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22791-global-seasonal-climate-update-for-october-november-december-2025.md) | -1.1% | -0.6% |

## Sources

- niwa.co.nz: https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/seasonal-climate-outlook/seasonal-climate-outlook-september-november-2018

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.