# As meat supplies grow for export demand, trade and tariff doubts hurt on-farm prices | 2018-09-13  | The National Provisioner

> A University of Missouri mid-year baseline outlook says U.S. meat and dairy supplies are growing, with per capita beef, pork, chicken and turkey up nearly 19 pounds from 2014 and a further increase expected in 2019. Export demand has grown in 2018, but trade and tariff uncertainty could leave supplies building at home. Farm prices are projected to decline for fed cattle, hogs and chickens.

- Date: 2018-09-13 · published 2018-09-13T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/63200-as-meat-supplies-grow-for-export-demand-trade-and-tariff-doubts-hurt-on-farm
- Commodities: [Live Cattle](https://feedsoft.ai/c/LCATTLE.md), [Lean Hogs](https://feedsoft.ai/c/HOGS.md), [Chicken](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CHICKEN.md)

## Why it matters

Growing herds and output, combined with uncertain export outlets, point to lower farm-level prices for cattle, hogs and chicken. Weaker meat prices also shift demand toward feed-intensive output, though the net effect on feed is mixed.

## Read by commodity

- HOGS: bearish ▼
- CHICKEN: bearish ▼
- LCATTLE: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| LCATTLE | 2018-12-14 | [2019 Meat and Poultry Industry Economic Outlook: A mixed bag \| 2018-12-14  \| The National Provisioner](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61720-2019-meat-and-poultry-industry-economic-outlook-a-mixed-bag-2018-12-14-the.md) | +0.3% | +4.9% |
| LCATTLE | 2017-07-26 | [Will demand keep cattle prices elevated or will supply push them down - Texas & Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69915-will-demand-keep-cattle-prices-elevated-or-will-supply-push-them-down-texas-and.md) | -1.1% | -6.9% |
| LCATTLE | 2018-08-07 | [Plenty of meat available as prices decline \| 2018-08-07  \| Food Business News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63476-plenty-of-meat-available-as-prices-decline-2018-08-07-food-business-news.md) | -2.3% | -4.2% |
| LCATTLE | 2022-04-11 | [Expect Short-Term Price Pressure on Feeder Cattle, Calves as More Head Push Into Feedlots](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41985-expect-short-term-price-pressure-on-feeder-cattle-calves-as-more-head-push-into.md) | +1.6% | -0.1% |
| LCATTLE | 2017-11-22 | [Future prices depend on supply management \| Western Livestock Journal](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67924-future-prices-depend-on-supply-management-western-livestock-journal.md) | +0.9% | +0.8% |
| HOGS | 2018-12-14 | [2019 Meat and Poultry Industry Economic Outlook: A mixed bag \| 2018-12-14  \| The National Provisioner](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61720-2019-meat-and-poultry-industry-economic-outlook-a-mixed-bag-2018-12-14-the.md) | +6.8% | +8.0% |
| HOGS | 2019-08-30 | [With pork demand getting all the attention, don’t forget supply](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57722-with-pork-demand-getting-all-the-attention-don-t-forget-supply.md) | -3.4% | -7.2% |
| HOGS | 2023-04-11 | [Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report – Hog Markets Will Need Strong Demand to Bring Better Prices in 2023 \| Farm Bureau Intel Markets \| American Farm Bureau Federation](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36549-quarterly-hogs-and-pigs-report-hog-markets-will-need-strong-demand-to-bring.md) | -1.8% | +2.5% |

## Sources

- provisioneronline.com: https://www.provisioneronline.com/articles/106749-as-meat-supplies-grow-for-export-demand-trade-and-tariff-doubts-hurt-on-farm-prices

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.