# USDA forecast increase surprises | VIC

> USDA's September report unexpectedly raised global wheat ending stocks by 2.33 million tonnes, despite lower Canadian and Australian crops. Russia was raised 3 million tonnes, India 2.7 million tonnes and Kazakhstan 1 million tonnes. The market had expected further cuts and fell for two sessions before a partial recovery.

- Date: 2018-09-19 · published 2018-09-19T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/63069-usda-forecast-increase-surprises-vic
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

Higher global stocks from the USDA's upward revisions to Russia and India weigh on wheat values, reducing the cost of wheat in feed rations. The Australian stock upgrade is questioned, so the balance could shift if local tightness is confirmed.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bearish ▼
- BARLEY: neutral
- KWHEAT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2018-12-14 | [USDA reports provide few surprises](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7515-usda-reports-provide-few-surprises.md) | +1.6% | +0.3% |
| WHEAT | 2017-07-13 | [USDA damped the hopes for serious increase of prices - for now](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6477-usda-damped-the-hopes-for-serious-increase-of-prices-for-now.md) | -1.8% | -1.6% |
| WHEAT | 2017-08-07 | [FranceAgriMer increases forecasts for wheat, maize and](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69382-franceagrimer-increases-forecasts-for-wheat-maize-and.md) | -3.8% | -3.4% |
| WHEAT | 2025-03-03 | [Australia increases wheat harvest forecast to 34.1 mln tons](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25546-australia-increases-wheat-harvest-forecast-to-34-1-mln-tons.md) | -3.4% | +0.5% |
| WHEAT | 2021-09-08 | [ABARES makes massive increase in production forecast \| Farm Online \| ACT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45028-abares-makes-massive-increase-in-production-forecast-farm-online-act.md) | +2.2% | +5.0% |
| KWHEAT | 2025-05-14 | [USDA forecasts lower wheat, corn, sorghum prices for 2025/26](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24718-usda-forecasts-lower-wheat-corn-sorghum-prices-for-2025-26.md) | +6.8% | +4.8% |
| KWHEAT | 2020-05-13 | [USDA forecasts intense competition on wheat, corn - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53176-usda-forecasts-intense-competition-on-wheat-corn-grain-central.md) | -8.7% | -5.4% |
| KWHEAT | 2023-12-19 | [Increasing forecasts of wheat harvest and exports from Canada lowers quotations in the US](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32746-increasing-forecasts-of-wheat-harvest-and-exports-from-canada-lowers-quotations.md) | +2.4% | -3.6% |

## Sources

- stockandland.com.au: https://www.stockandland.com.au/story/5654109/usda-estimates-global-rises/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.