# New El Niño weather event likely this winter says WMO

> The WMO estimates a 70% chance of an El Niño recurring before the end of 2018, with the event expected to be less intense than the 2015-16 episode. Past El Niño events drove drought in Africa and floods in South America.

- Date: 2018-09-10 · published 2018-09-10T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/62950-new-el-nino-weather-event-likely-this-winter-says-wmo
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

A possible El Niño raises the risk of drought in key producing regions, but the expectation of a weaker event limits the likely price impact compared with 2015-16.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2023-01-10 | [What is El Niño, and how does it affect the weather and temperatures?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37701-what-is-el-nino-and-how-does-it-affect-the-weather-and-temperatures.md) | -4.6% | -3.0% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-09-04 | [Will a ‘Super’ El Niño Impact the Weather and Food Production in 2026? - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17398-will-a-super-el-nino-impact-the-weather-and-food-production-in-2026-bloomberg.md) | -1.4% | -8.8% |
| PALMOIL | 2018-05-10 | [El Niño pattern could emerge by 2018-19 winter: U.S. forecaster](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64959-el-nino-pattern-could-emerge-by-2018-19-winter-u-s-forecaster.md) | +0.7% | -0.0% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-06-08 | [Extreme weather expected as El Nino climate pattern returns, US forecaster says \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35406-extreme-weather-expected-as-el-nino-climate-pattern-returns-us-forecaster-says.md) | +2.1% | +14.6% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-04-24 | [Explainer: How El Nino could impact the world's weather in 2026/27 \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19629-explainer-how-el-nino-could-impact-the-world-s-weather-in-2026-27-reuters.md) | -0.0% | -1.4% |
| CORN | 2024-09-12 | [La Nina weather 71% likely to develop in Sept-Nov, says US forecaster \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28233-la-nina-weather-71-likely-to-develop-in-sept-nov-says-us-forecaster-reuters.md) | +4.9% | +5.1% |
| CORN | 2021-07-20 | [Adverse weather? Blame the El Niño cycle](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45917-adverse-weather-blame-the-el-nino-cycle.md) | -1.1% | -0.1% |
| CORN | 2024-02-19 | [The El Niño weather pattern shapes 2024 commodity price forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31589-the-el-nino-weather-pattern-shapes-2024-commodity-price-forecast.md) | -0.3% | +7.1% |

## Sources

- bbc.com: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45471409

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.