# USD/BRL: Further recovery of the real for now until optimism fades - ABN AMRO — Octa

> ABN AMRO expects USD/BRL to trade near 3.7 by year-end after Brazil's presidential election, and says the real may gain further near term. The bank notes the real lost over 25% from January to August 2018 before recovering about 13% on hopes for Jair Bolsonaro's reforms. It remains sceptical and expects the real to give back some gains once optimism fades, with 3.2 forecast for end-2019.

- Date: 2018-10-29 · published 2018-10-29T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/62738-usd-brl-further-recovery-of-the-real-for-now-until-optimism-fades-abn-amro-octa
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

A stronger real makes Brazilian soybean, corn and meal exports more expensive in dollar terms for importers, which can modestly weigh on South American export competitiveness and support global feed prices if sustained; a reversal would do the opposite.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2021-08-04 | [USD/BRL: Hawkish BCB to provide further anchor to the real – Credit Suisse — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45761-usd-brl-hawkish-bcb-to-provide-further-anchor-to-the-real-credit-suisse-octa.md) | -0.8% | -1.8% |
| USDBRL | 2021-07-12 | [USD/BRL: Real should continue to find demand this summer – ING — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46263-usd-brl-real-should-continue-to-find-demand-this-summer-ing-octa.md) | -3.2% | -0.7% |
| USDBRL | 2021-07-05 | [USD/BRL to end the year at 5.10 as the real shows its strength – MUFG — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9909-usd-brl-to-end-the-year-at-5-10-as-the-real-shows-its-strength-mufg-octa.md) | +3.0% | +1.6% |
| USDBRL | 2017-09-29 | [Brazil: Mid- and long-term prospects for the BRL look brisker - Danske Bank — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69155-brazil-mid-and-long-term-prospects-for-the-brl-look-brisker-danske-bank-octa.md) | -1.6% | +2.7% |
| USDBRL | 2020-12-09 | [USD/BRL to extend the decline to 5.00 – Credit Suisse — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49855-usd-brl-to-extend-the-decline-to-5-00-credit-suisse-octa.md) | +0.6% | +6.0% |

## Sources

- octaafrica.net: https://www.octaafrica.net/markets/news/view/629194/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.