# Fertiliser costs are soaring amid war in the Middle East. Will your grocery bill follow?

> Effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has followed conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran. The Middle East exports about 45% of global fertiliser supply, and urea prices have risen about 25% since the conflict began.

- Date: 2026-03-05 · published 2026-03-05T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Australia · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/6256-fertiliser-costs-are-soaring-amid-war-in-the-middle-east-will-your-grocery-bill
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Australia relies almost entirely on imported urea, so supply shocks raise planting costs and risk availability for winter crops, which can feed through to grain and feed prices.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2026-03-03 | [Fertilizer Markets Surge Following Escalation in the Middle East - RFD](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4435-fertilizer-markets-surge-following-escalation-in-the-middle-east-rfd.md) | +10.0% | +19.1% |
| UREA | 2025-06-24 | [How Middle East Strikes Sent Fertilizer Prices Soaring](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24538-how-middle-east-strikes-sent-fertilizer-prices-soaring.md) | +1.0% | +11.7% |
| UREA | 2022-05-31 | [Why fertiliser prices are soaring](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41723-why-fertiliser-prices-are-soaring.md) | -8.8% | -13.2% |
| UREA | 2022-04-27 | [Rocketing fertiliser prices forecast to continue amid war and surging cost of fuel](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6218-rocketing-fertiliser-prices-forecast-to-continue-amid-war-and-surging-cost-of.md) | -18.9% | -19.2% |
| UREA | 2026-03-02 | [Shipping disrupted in the Middle East \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/16876-shipping-disrupted-in-the-middle-east-world-grain.md) | +25.5% | +36.4% |
| WTI | 2026-03-02 | [Shipping disrupted in the Middle East \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/16876-shipping-disrupted-in-the-middle-east-world-grain.md) | +35.6% | +50.4% |
| WTI | 2026-03-04 | [US diesel hits $4 per gallon as fuel costs rise amid escalating Middle East conflict \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5530-us-diesel-hits-4-per-gallon-as-fuel-costs-rise-amid-escalating-middle-east.md) | +12.2% | +37.4% |
| WTI | 2024-10-02 | [Urea prices in the US experience price rally amid Middle East confrontations](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5243-urea-prices-in-the-us-experience-price-rally-amid-middle-east-confrontations.md) | +5.4% | -4.0% |

## Sources

- theconversation.com: https://theconversation.com/fertiliser-costs-are-soaring-amid-war-in-the-middle-east-will-your-grocery-bill-follow-277511

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.