# How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming

> Tehran is moving to restrict or effectively close the Strait of Hormuz to shipping amid the Iran war, and most shipping companies have suspended transits. Around a third of globally traded urea passes through the strait.

- Date: 2026-03-05 · published 2026-03-05T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Middle East · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/6255-how-the-iran-war-could-create-a-fertiliser-shock-an-often-ignored-global-risk
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Natural Gas](https://feedsoft.ai/c/NATGAS.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A sustained Hormuz disruption would cut urea and other nitrogen fertiliser supply, raising planting costs and risking lower yields for grains and oilseeds, with knock-on effects on feed prices.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲
- BRENT: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- NATGAS: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2020-06-06 | [From the Persian Gulf to the granaries of Lithuania: the war in Iran threatens a price shock for food and fertiliser - Agrobitė](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52545-from-the-persian-gulf-to-the-granaries-of-lithuania-the-war-in-iran-threatens-a.md) | +1.3% | +7.1% |
| UREA | 2026-04-01 | [The Iran war’s impacts on global fertilizer markets and food production](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19643-the-iran-war-s-impacts-on-global-fertilizer-markets-and-food-production.md) | +10.6% | +7.6% |
| UREA | 2022-04-27 | [Rocketing fertiliser prices forecast to continue amid war and surging cost of fuel](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6218-rocketing-fertiliser-prices-forecast-to-continue-amid-war-and-surging-cost-of.md) | -18.9% | -19.2% |
| UREA | 2022-04-06 | [A fertilizer shortage, worsened by war in Ukraine, is driving up global food prices and scarcity](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42132-a-fertilizer-shortage-worsened-by-war-in-ukraine-is-driving-up-global-food.md) | -3.9% | -24.2% |
| UREA | 2026-03-05 | [Farmers see fertiliser price surge as Iran war blocks exports, threatening losses \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6254-farmers-see-fertiliser-price-surge-as-iran-war-blocks-exports-threatening.md) | +3.0% | +20.1% |
| WTI | 2020-06-06 | [From the Persian Gulf to the granaries of Lithuania: the war in Iran threatens a price shock for food and fertiliser - Agrobitė](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52545-from-the-persian-gulf-to-the-granaries-of-lithuania-the-war-in-iran-threatens-a.md) | -8.3% | +2.6% |
| WTI | 2026-03-05 | [Farmers see fertiliser price surge as Iran war blocks exports, threatening losses \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6254-farmers-see-fertiliser-price-surge-as-iran-war-blocks-exports-threatening.md) | +16.5% | +35.8% |
| WTI | 2026-04-01 | [How the Iran War Is Disrupting Global Oil and Gas Supply](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20364-how-the-iran-war-is-disrupting-global-oil-and-gas-supply.md) | -6.6% | +6.7% |

## Sources

- theconversation.com: https://theconversation.com/how-the-iran-war-could-create-a-fertiliser-shock-an-often-ignored-global-risk-to-food-prices-and-farming-277552

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.