# Eastern drought pushes Australian winter crop forecast lower - Grain Central

> INTL FCStone cut its October estimate of Australian wheat production to 16.4 million tonnes, down 2.38Mt from September, and barley to 6.63Mt. Canola was trimmed to 2.23Mt as drought persists across eastern cropping regions.

- Date: 2018-10-10 · published 2018-10-10T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Australia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/62503-eastern-drought-pushes-australian-winter-crop-forecast-lower-grain-central
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md), [Canola Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CANMEAL.md)

## Why it matters

Further downgrades to Australian wheat and barley reduce exportable supply and support world feed grain and wheat prices.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲
- CANMEAL: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2018-10-15 | 5 | +8.4% | 3.1 | INTL FCStone cut Australian wheat output by 2.38 Mt, tightening global exportable supply and supporting prices. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2018-09-11 | [Drought lowers Australian grain forecast \| 2018-09-11  \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62987-drought-lowers-australian-grain-forecast-2018-09-11-world-grain.md) | -7.4% | -7.0% |
| WHEAT | 2023-08-22 | [SA winter crop forecast at 8.8Mt: PIRSA - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34525-sa-winter-crop-forecast-at-8-8mt-pirsa-grain-central.md) | -4.2% | -1.7% |
| WHEAT | 2017-09-12 | [Forecast decrease for winter crop production: ABARES - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68910-forecast-decrease-for-winter-crop-production-abares-grain-central.md) | +1.0% | +4.5% |
| WHEAT | 2019-10-21 | [Tough times take toll on Australian winter crop: Rabobank - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56532-tough-times-take-toll-on-australian-winter-crop-rabobank-grain-central.md) | -2.2% | -0.1% |
| WHEAT | 2018-11-01 | [Australia set for smallest winter crop in a decade: Rural Bank - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61992-australia-set-for-smallest-winter-crop-in-a-decade-rural-bank-grain-central.md) | -3.7% | -5.1% |

## Sources

- graincentral.com: https://www.graincentral.com/news/eastern-drought-pushes-australian-winter-crop-forecast-lower/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.