# Hot, dry summer ahead as El Nino sets in - Grain Central

> Grain Central reports that recent rain in eastern Australia has eased farmers' concerns, but forecasts show a dry summer ahead. The Bureau of Meteorology puts the chance of El Niño in 2018 at 70 percent, and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also developing.

- Date: 2018-10-24 · published 2018-10-24T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Australia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/62475-hot-dry-summer-ahead-as-el-nino-sets-in-grain-central
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md), [Sorghum](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SORGHUM.md)

## Why it matters

A dry Australian summer would cut wheat, barley and sorghum output and reduce Australian grain exports, supporting world grain prices. The effect is likely to build over the coming months as the season develops.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲
- SORGHUM: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2017-04-28 | [Forecasts point to dry season ahead for WA croppers - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71432-forecasts-point-to-dry-season-ahead-for-wa-croppers-grain-central.md) | +2.4% | +1.5% |
| WHEAT | 2023-05-28 | [Dry northern NSW arrests wheat as sowing nears end - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35901-dry-northern-nsw-arrests-wheat-as-sowing-nears-end-grain-central.md) | -1.4% | -1.7% |
| WHEAT | 2023-08-01 | [Tough summer hits EU grain production outlook - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34513-tough-summer-hits-eu-grain-production-outlook-grain-central.md) | +0.4% | -7.2% |
| WHEAT | 2018-05-24 | [Feedgrain focus: Dry in NSW drains stored reserves - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65132-feedgrain-focus-dry-in-nsw-drains-stored-reserves-grain-central.md) | -0.8% | -2.2% |
| WHEAT | 2020-10-19 | [Global markets look firm as WA heads into harvest: CBH - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12843-global-markets-look-firm-as-wa-heads-into-harvest-cbh-grain-central.md) | +1.2% | -1.1% |

## Sources

- graincentral.com: https://www.graincentral.com/weather/hot-dry-summer-ahead-as-el-nino-sets-in/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.