# Note on developing El Niño conditions end 2018 - beginning 2019 (10 October 2018) | OCHA

> OCHA issued a note estimating a 50-55% chance of El Niño for October-November, rising to 65-70% for late 2018 and early 2019. It cites the WMO confirmation of a 70% chance of development by the fourth quarter of 2018. The note says impacts will begin before ENSO peaks and continue after it returns to neutral.

- Date: 2018-10-10 · published 2018-10-10T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/62473-note-on-developing-el-nino-conditions-end-2018-beginning-2019-10-october-2018
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md)

## Why it matters

Humanitarian planners' warnings of drought in tropical regions signal possible crop shortfalls in food-insecure areas and tighter regional supplies. The price impact on feed commodities is indirect.

## Read by commodity

- RICE: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2026-05-14 | [US forecaster says El Nino has 82% chance of developing by July \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19187-us-forecaster-says-el-nino-has-82-chance-of-developing-by-july-reuters.md) | +4.7% | -1.2% |
| RICE | 2018-11-29 | [El Niño 2018/19: Central America identified as 'high risk' region by FAO](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61969-el-nino-2018-19-central-america-identified-as-high-risk-region-by-fao.md) | +0.1% | -7.1% |
| RICE | 2023-05-05 | [‘Developing’ El Nino may hit India’s maize, soya and rice output, says FAO   - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35870-developing-el-nino-may-hit-india-s-maize-soya-and-rice-output-says-fao-the.md) | +1.8% | -0.5% |
| RICE | 2023-11-03 | [El Niño: Anticipatory Action and Response Plan, October 2023 - March 2024 - Mitigating the expected impacts of El Niño-induced climate extremes on agriculture and food security - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33097-el-nino-anticipatory-action-and-response-plan-october-2023-march-2024.md) | +3.1% | +6.3% |
| RICE | 2024-03-14 | [US forecaster sees higher chance of La Nina conditions this summer \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31137-us-forecaster-sees-higher-chance-of-la-nina-conditions-this-summer-reuters.md) | +0.5% | -4.2% |

## Sources

- unocha.org: https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/ethiopia/note-developing-el-ni-o-conditions-end-2018-beginning-2019-10-october-2018

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.