# IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | 2018 October Quick Look

> The IRI October 2018 ENSO Quick Look reports that sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific have warmed to weak El Niño levels. The official CPC/IRI outlook gives a 70-75% chance of El Niño forming in October/November and persisting through winter 2018-19.

- Date: 2018-10-19 · published 2018-10-19T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/62470-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2018-october-quick
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

Rising odds of El Niño raise the risk of dry weather in Australia, Southeast Asia and parts of South America, which can tighten palm oil, sugar and grain supplies. Markets may price in some supply risk ahead of the event.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2018-11-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2018 November Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61967-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2018-november.md) | +0.5% | +3.7% |
| PALMOIL | 2019-06-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2019 June Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58501-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-june-quick.md) | -0.1% | -1.2% |
| PALMOIL | 2019-04-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2019 April Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59509-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-april-quick.md) | -0.4% | -6.7% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-09-21 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| September 2026 Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17396-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-september-2026.md) | -1.2% | -4.9% |
| PALMOIL | 2019-01-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2019 January Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61019-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-january-quick.md) | +1.3% | +4.4% |
| CORN | 2017-10-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2017 October Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68373-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2017-october-quick.md) | +0.4% | -5.5% |
| CORN | 2020-10-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2020 October Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50564-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2020-october-quick.md) | +2.7% | +2.6% |
| CORN | 2021-10-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| October 2021 Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44471-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-october-2021-quick.md) | +0.7% | +10.3% |

## Sources

- iri.columbia.edu: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2018-october-quick-look/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.