# Urea prices heading higher: analyst | The Western Producer

> China suspended urea exports on October 15, and strong Indian demand is tightening the market. Urea prices in New Orleans rose 4% in October and 23% year on year, with forward prices for December and January also climbing.

- Date: 2025-10-31 · published 2025-10-31T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region China · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/6227-urea-prices-heading-higher-analyst-the-western-producer
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md)

## Why it matters

India must source urea elsewhere after China's ban, which is expected to support global nitrogen prices into 2026. The export suspension is a major supply shock.

## Read by commodity

- UREA: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2025-11-03 | 1 | +4.1% | 5.3 | It reports China's urea export halt and strong Indian demand tightening supply, with New Orleans prices and forward December/January prices rising, which supports continued upward price pressure into Nov 3. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2024-08-14 | [Urea supply tight as China keeps exports low \| The Western Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28672-urea-supply-tight-as-china-keeps-exports-low-the-western-producer.md) | -0.3% | +1.2% |
| UREA | 2025-04-16 | [Nitrogen prices soar on reduced Chinese exports \| The Western Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25020-nitrogen-prices-soar-on-reduced-chinese-exports-the-western-producer.md) | +1.4% | +18.5% |
| UREA | 2025-02-05 | [Urea, UAN32 lead fertilizer prices higher; tariffs could boost potash prices - AgriAmerica](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25958-urea-uan32-lead-fertilizer-prices-higher-tariffs-could-boost-potash-prices.md) | +2.4% | -1.5% |
| UREA | 2020-11-18 | [Urea Slows Downward Trend -- Prices Uncertain Ahead](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50088-urea-slows-downward-trend-prices-uncertain-ahead.md) | +0.4% | +7.4% |
| UREA | 2026-02-25 | [Understanding the surge in urea prices for Aussie farmers \| Farm Online \| ACT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20926-understanding-the-surge-in-urea-prices-for-aussie-farmers-farm-online-act.md) | +28.3% | +35.4% |

## Sources

- producer.com: https://www.producer.com/news/urea-prices-heading-higher-analyst/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.