# Ag Weather Forum

> DTN's Bryce Anderson reports that NOAA's Climate Prediction Center expects El Niño during the 2018-19 winter, with about an 80% chance, and into spring at 55-60%. The atmospheric response has not yet fully developed, with convection suppressed near the Date Line and Indonesia and Southern Oscillation indices near zero.

- Date: 2018-11-08 · published 2018-11-08T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/61971-ag-weather-forum
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Suppressed convection over Indonesia and Australia signals the dry-season risk that can hit palm oil and Australian grain output. Traders may add some weather premium to these markets while the atmospheric signal remains unconfirmed.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2020-10-23 | [Wild weather sparking food inflation](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5718-wild-weather-sparking-food-inflation.md) | +0.7% | +14.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2018-01-10 | [Top five weather risks for grain markets in 2018 - 10 January 2018 Premium](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66931-top-five-weather-risks-for-grain-markets-in-2018-10-january-2018-premium.md) | -1.6% | -1.8% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-04-11 | [Comment: Weather awaits next trend - Manitoba Co-operator](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36318-comment-weather-awaits-next-trend-manitoba-co-operator.md) | -1.3% | -3.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-06-08 | [Extreme weather expected as El Nino climate pattern returns, US forecaster says \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35406-extreme-weather-expected-as-el-nino-climate-pattern-returns-us-forecaster-says.md) | +2.1% | +14.6% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-09-04 | [Will a ‘Super’ El Niño Impact the Weather and Food Production in 2026? - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17398-will-a-super-el-nino-impact-the-weather-and-food-production-in-2026-bloomberg.md) | -1.4% | -8.8% |
| WHEAT | 2018-02-16 | [Wheat Holds Weather Premium](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66557-wheat-holds-weather-premium.md) | -0.8% | +1.4% |
| WHEAT | 2020-10-23 | [Wild weather sparking food inflation](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5718-wild-weather-sparking-food-inflation.md) | -0.1% | -4.5% |
| WHEAT | 2017-07-27 | [Weather forecasts support soybeans, corn - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7126-weather-forecasts-support-soybeans-corn-brownfield-ag-news.md) | +6.5% | -1.1% |

## Sources

- dtnpf.com: https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/Ag/blogs/ag-weather-forum/blog-post/2018/11/08/el-nino-still-developing

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.