# Trade wars, currency and El Niño threaten price stability: Rabobank - Grain Central

> Rabobank's annual Agri Commodities Outlook names the US-China trade war, currency swings and El Niño as the main threats to food price stability in 2019. It forecasts China's soybean imports will fall below 90 million tonnes in 2018/19, leaving US soybean stocks more than doubling to record levels.

- Date: 2018-11-18 · published 2018-11-18T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/61970-trade-wars-currency-and-el-nino-threaten-price-stability-rabobank-grain-central
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Lower Chinese purchases of US soybeans create a large US oversupply, which pressures US soybean prices and supports Brazilian export premiums. Heavier soybean supply also means cheaper soybean meal for feed buyers.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bearish ▼
- SOY: bearish ▼
- CORN: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2025-01-06 | [Potential impacts of US-China trade war 2.0 on soybeans - Rabobank](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14693-potential-impacts-of-us-china-trade-war-2-0-on-soybeans-rabobank.md) | +3.3% | +7.9% |
| SOY | 2018-04-10 | [In Trade War, U.S. Soy May Be Safe - Rabobank - AgriBusiness Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65548-in-trade-war-u-s-soy-may-be-safe-rabobank-agribusiness-global.md) | -0.5% | -4.3% |
| SOY | 2019-12-18 | [U.S. grains: Prices slip after rallying on trade deal - Grainews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9218-u-s-grains-prices-slip-after-rallying-on-trade-deal-grainews.md) | +0.8% | -0.5% |
| SOY | 2020-05-04 | [Waning demand for CPO threatens exports, price](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11552-waning-demand-for-cpo-threatens-exports-price.md) | +0.2% | -0.8% |
| SOY | 2018-08-01 | [EM ASIA FX-Most Asian currencies tread water as Fed eyed amid trade war fears](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63792-em-asia-fx-most-asian-currencies-tread-water-as-fed-eyed-amid-trade-war-fears.md) | -1.6% | -9.2% |
| SBM | 2018-04-24 | [Uncertainties threaten optimism in global pork trade - Rabobank - Pig World](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65664-uncertainties-threaten-optimism-in-global-pork-trade-rabobank-pig-world.md) | +5.5% | +2.0% |
| SBM | 2021-04-30 | [High grain prices alter feeding, trade patterns \| Feed Strategy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47677-high-grain-prices-alter-feeding-trade-patterns-feed-strategy.md) | +0.5% | -6.6% |
| SBM | 2018-06-26 | [Grain and oilseed prices fall amid trade uncertainty \| 2018-06-26  \| Food Business News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8581-grain-and-oilseed-prices-fall-amid-trade-uncertainty-2018-06-26-food-business.md) | -1.0% | -1.2% |

## Sources

- graincentral.com: https://www.graincentral.com/markets/trade-wars-currency-and-el-nino-threaten-price-stability-rabobank/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.