# IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | 2018 November Quick Look

> The IRI's November 2018 ENSO Quick Look reports El Niño-level sea surface temperatures in October with subsurface waters continuing warmer than average, though atmospheric patterns were mostly neutral. The official CPC/IRI outlook gives an 80% chance of El Niño during winter and 55-60% into spring 2019, and an El Niño watch is in effect.

- Date: 2018-11-19 · published 2018-11-19T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/61967-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2018-november
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A developing El Niño raises the risk of drought in Australia, Southeast Asia and parts of South America, which could cut crop output and firm prices for grains, oilseeds and palm oil. Traders are likely to price in some weather premium ahead of the 2019 season.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2018-10-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2018 October Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62470-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2018-october-quick.md) | -2.9% | -6.2% |
| CORN | 2024-09-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| September 2024 Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28234-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-september-2024.md) | -0.7% | -2.4% |
| CORN | 2018-02-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2018 February Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66417-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2018-february.md) | -0.1% | +4.4% |
| CORN | 2017-10-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2017 October Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68373-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2017-october-quick.md) | +0.4% | -5.5% |
| CORN | 2019-06-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2019 June Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58501-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-june-quick.md) | +1.3% | -1.6% |
| SOY | 2018-10-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2018 October Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62470-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2018-october-quick.md) | -2.5% | +2.9% |
| SOY | 2024-09-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| September 2024 Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28234-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-september-2024.md) | +3.9% | -3.4% |
| SOY | 2018-02-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2018 February Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66417-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2018-february.md) | +1.2% | +0.1% |

## Sources

- iri.columbia.edu: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2018-november-quick-look/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.