# El Nino is back – and may stick around

> The Climate Prediction Center raised the odds of El Niño for November-January to 96%, up from 84% the prior month, and more than 50% odds of it persisting into June-August. Analysts note El Niño typically brings above-average US corn, soybean and wheat yields if it lasts into the fall.

- Date: 2018-12-14 · published 2018-12-14T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/61499-el-nino-is-back-and-may-stick-around
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Expectations of favorable US growing conditions in 2019 reduce drought risk premium in corn, soybeans and wheat, which supports bearish price sentiment. Feed buyers may see softer grain prices if the event strengthens as forecast.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼
- CORN: bearish ▼
- WHEAT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2023-06-01 | [El Nino may hammer Asian farms with dry weather, but shower American growers](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35407-el-nino-may-hammer-asian-farms-with-dry-weather-but-shower-american-growers.md) | -2.2% | -3.2% |
| CORN | 2021-05-13 | [El Niño/La Niña Update (May 2021)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46985-el-nino-la-nina-update-may-2021.md) | -7.7% | -2.2% |
| CORN | 2021-03-01 | [Argentina may have dodged La Nina bullet](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48540-argentina-may-have-dodged-la-nina-bullet.md) | +0.6% | +5.4% |
| CORN | 2019-03-15 | [El Nino Odds Favorable Through the Summer - ProAg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60009-el-nino-odds-favorable-through-the-summer-proag.md) | +4.2% | -1.8% |
| CORN | 2023-01-27 | [Dry Bulk Market Under Pressure in Early 2023 \| Sea and Job](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37990-dry-bulk-market-under-pressure-in-early-2023-sea-and-job.md) | -1.1% | -1.9% |
| SOY | 2021-05-13 | [El Niño/La Niña Update (May 2021)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46985-el-nino-la-nina-update-may-2021.md) | -7.4% | -7.0% |
| SOY | 2021-03-01 | [Argentina may have dodged La Nina bullet](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48540-argentina-may-have-dodged-la-nina-bullet.md) | +2.1% | -0.3% |
| SOY | 2019-03-15 | [El Nino Odds Favorable Through the Summer - ProAg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60009-el-nino-odds-favorable-through-the-summer-proag.md) | +2.4% | +0.6% |

## Sources

- farmprogress.com: https://www.farmprogress.com/marketing/el-nino-is-back-and-may-stick-around

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.