# IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | 2018 December Quick Look

> The IRI December 2018 Quick Look reports that El Niño-level sea surface temperatures persisted in November with warmer subsurface waters, though most atmospheric indicators remained neutral. The official CPC/IRI outlook puts the chance of El Niño during winter at 96% and 70% for March-May 2019, and an El Niño watch is in effect.

- Date: 2018-12-19 · published 2018-12-19T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/61498-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2018-december
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A developing El Niño typically brings wetter, milder conditions to parts of the Americas and drier conditions to Australia, India and Southeast Asia, which can shift yield expectations for grains and oilseeds. Markets may price in better South American and US crop prospects, adding mild bearish pressure to corn and soy.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼
- CORN: bearish ▼
- WHEAT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2019-03-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2019 March Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60007-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-march-quick.md) | -0.3% | -3.4% |
| CORN | 2021-05-26 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| May Climate Briefing: Neutral Conditions are Here](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46986-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-may-climate.md) | +8.1% | +6.4% |
| CORN | 2026-01-08 | [2026 Weather Outlook: La Niña’s Quick Exit, El Niño’s Potential and the Signals Farmers Should Watch - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20956-2026-weather-outlook-la-nina-s-quick-exit-el-nino-s-potential-and-the-signals.md) | -3.4% | -2.0% |
| CORN | 2017-12-15 | [Monsoon rains finally begin in Brazil \| World-grain.com \| December 15, 2017 20:55 \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67329-monsoon-rains-finally-begin-in-brazil-world-grain-com-december-15-2017-20-55.md) | +2.7% | +2.5% |
| CORN | 2025-07-10 | [Climate Prediction Center sees 56% chance of ENSO neutral conditions in August-October](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23660-climate-prediction-center-sees-56-chance-of-enso-neutral-conditions-in-august.md) | -1.0% | -3.0% |
| SOY | 2019-03-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2019 March Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60007-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-march-quick.md) | +0.1% | -0.8% |
| SOY | 2021-05-26 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| May Climate Briefing: Neutral Conditions are Here](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46986-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-may-climate.md) | +3.4% | -8.4% |
| SOY | 2017-12-15 | [Monsoon rains finally begin in Brazil \| World-grain.com \| December 15, 2017 20:55 \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67329-monsoon-rains-finally-begin-in-brazil-world-grain-com-december-15-2017-20-55.md) | -2.0% | +0.0% |

## Sources

- iri.columbia.edu: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2018-december-quick-look/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.