# Trade war, sick hogs make China soy purchases hard to predict: Braun

> Nearly 100 African Swine Fever cases have been reported in China since August, with 916,000 animals culled as of the reporting Tuesday. Chinase most actively traded soymeal futures fell nearly 3 percent on Monday to their lowest in almost a year.

- Date: 2019-01-16 · published 2019-01-16T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: disease · region China · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/61085-trade-war-sick-hogs-make-china-soy-purchases-hard-to-predict-braun
- Commodities: [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Lean Hogs](https://feedsoft.ai/c/HOGS.md)

## Why it matters

ASF-driven hog losses reduce demand for soymeal in China, the largest soybean importer, weighing on soybean and meal prices and making China's purchase pace harder to predict.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bearish ▼
- SOY: bearish ▼
- HOGS: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBM | 2019-08-08 | [Hog Virus May Matter More for China Soy Buyers Than Trade War - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11476-hog-virus-may-matter-more-for-china-soy-buyers-than-trade-war-bloomberg.md) | 0.0% | -1.5% |
| SBM | 2019-01-17 | [China soybean imports show US farmers have more to fear than trade war](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60960-china-soybean-imports-show-us-farmers-have-more-to-fear-than-trade-war.md) | +0.7% | -1.5% |
| SBM | 2019-01-28 | [Soy Prices Are in a Trough After China’s Sick-Pig Slaughter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61089-soy-prices-are-in-a-trough-after-china-s-sick-pig-slaughter.md) | -0.7% | -2.7% |
| SBM | 2019-03-12 | [Swine fever hurts China soybean demand, raises doubts on trade promises](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60092-swine-fever-hurts-china-soybean-demand-raises-doubts-on-trade-promises.md) | +4.4% | +4.2% |
| SBM | 2018-08-31 | [Hog prices poised to soar as deadly swine disease emerges in China - MarketWatch](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63673-hog-prices-poised-to-soar-as-deadly-swine-disease-emerges-in-china-marketwatch.md) | +4.2% | +1.3% |
| SOY | 2019-01-17 | [China soybean imports show US farmers have more to fear than trade war](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60960-china-soybean-imports-show-us-farmers-have-more-to-fear-than-trade-war.md) | +2.4% | +1.0% |
| SOY | 2019-01-28 | [Soy Prices Are in a Trough After China’s Sick-Pig Slaughter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61089-soy-prices-are-in-a-trough-after-china-s-sick-pig-slaughter.md) | -0.8% | -1.5% |
| SOY | 2019-03-12 | [Swine fever hurts China soybean demand, raises doubts on trade promises](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60092-swine-fever-hurts-china-soybean-demand-raises-doubts-on-trade-promises.md) | +3.2% | +2.4% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-soybeans-braun/trade-war-sick-hogs-make-china-soy-purchases-hard-to-predict-braun-idUSKCN1PA2EM/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.