# IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | December Climate Briefing: Atmosphere Resists El Niño  Participation

> IRI's December climate briefing says El Niño-like ocean conditions in the equatorial Pacific have persisted since late September 2018, with the Niño3.4 anomaly at 1.0°C, but the atmosphere has not fully joined in. The atmosphere has become less El Niño-like over the past month, leaving the outlook uncertain.

- Date: 2019-01-03 · published 2019-01-03T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/61020-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-december-climate
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Uncertainty over whether El Niño will fully develop keeps weather risk premium in grain and oilseed markets, since a strong event could cut output in Southeast Asia and Australia.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2020-07-21 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| July Climate Briefing: La Niña Watch Issued](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52035-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-july-climate.md) | +0.4% | +8.7% |
| PALMOIL | 2018-11-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2018 November Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61967-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2018-november.md) | +0.5% | +3.7% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-09-21 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| September 2026 Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17396-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-september-2026.md) | -1.2% | -4.9% |
| PALMOIL | 2018-10-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2018 October Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62470-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2018-october-quick.md) | -0.9% | -9.6% |
| PALMOIL | 2019-06-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2019 June Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58501-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-june-quick.md) | -0.1% | -1.2% |
| WHEAT | 2016-11-22 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| November Climate Briefing: La Niña Arrives, Some Impacts Likely](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73773-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-november-climate.md) | -2.8% | +0.7% |
| WHEAT | 2020-08-20 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| August Climate Briefing: La Niña Seeming More Likely](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51518-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-august-climate.md) | +3.1% | +11.1% |
| WHEAT | 2018-07-30 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| July Climate Briefing: Models Continue to Predict El Niño in Coming Months](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63936-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-july-climate.md) | -1.2% | -1.7% |

## Sources

- iri.columbia.edu: https://iri.columbia.edu/news/december-climate-briefing-atmosphere-resists-el-nino-participation/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.