# IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | 2019 January Quick Look

> The IRI January 2019 ENSO Quick Look reports that El Niño-level sea surface temperatures continued in December, with subsurface waters warm but less strongly so. The official CPC/IRI outlook gives an 82% chance of El Niño during Jan-Mar and 66% during Mar-May, and an El Niño watch is in effect.

- Date: 2019-01-19 · published 2019-01-19T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/61019-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-january-quick
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

A developing El Niño raises the risk of drought in Australia, India and Southeast Asia and of dryness in parts of South America, which can tighten supplies of grains, oilseeds and palm oil and support prices.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2019-06-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2019 June Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58501-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-june-quick.md) | -0.1% | -1.2% |
| PALMOIL | 2019-04-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2019 April Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59509-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-april-quick.md) | -0.4% | -6.7% |
| PALMOIL | 2018-10-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2018 October Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62470-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2018-october-quick.md) | -0.9% | -9.6% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-08-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| August 2026 Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17829-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-august-2026-quick.md) | +0.8% | +4.0% |
| PALMOIL | 2018-11-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2018 November Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61967-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2018-november.md) | +0.5% | +3.7% |
| WHEAT | 2019-06-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2019 June Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58501-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-june-quick.md) | +7.3% | -3.0% |
| WHEAT | 2019-03-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2019 March Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60007-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-march-quick.md) | +1.7% | -1.5% |
| WHEAT | 2019-04-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2019 April Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59509-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-april-quick.md) | -1.0% | -10.6% |

## Sources

- iri.columbia.edu: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2019-january-quick-look/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.