# State Of The Industry: Trade Uncertainty Still Dominates Outlook For 2019 - The Waterways Journal

> The Waterways Journal's annual outlook says barge industry leaders see trade uncertainty as a major 2019 risk, alongside a prolonged US federal government shutdown. Negotiations between the US and China are underway, with rumors of large Chinese purchases of US soybeans.

- Date: 2019-01-25 · published 2019-01-25T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/60988-state-of-the-industry-trade-uncertainty-still-dominates-outlook-for-2019-the
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md), [Barge Freight (St. Louis)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARGE.md)

## Why it matters

Possible Chinese soybean purchases would support US soybean demand and export flows, while continued tariff uncertainty keeps barge freight and export margins volatile. The outcome of the talks is a key swing factor for soybean and soymeal prices.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: neutral
- SOY: bullish ▲
- BARGE: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2019-06-15 | [Poultry trade trends in the US: 2018-2019](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58753-poultry-trade-trends-in-the-us-2018-2019.md) | +0.7% | +0.6% |
| SOY | 2018-11-17 | [Global trade flows dominate local cash markets — This week in the grain markets - RealAgriculture](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11723-global-trade-flows-dominate-local-cash-markets-this-week-in-the-grain-markets.md) | -3.4% | +1.7% |
| SOY | 2023-10-25 | [Keynote Speech by H.E. Ambassador Xie Feng at the U.S.-China Sustainable Agricultural Trade Forum & Contract Signing Ceremony_Embassy of the People's Republic of China in the United States of America](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14803-keynote-speech-by-h-e-ambassador-xie-feng-at-the-u-s-china-sustainable.md) | -0.6% | +6.3% |
| SOY | 2019-12-23 | [Commodity Kindles as Trade Ease Surfaces; Is the Rally Sustainable or Is it on a Weak Footing?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10021-commodity-kindles-as-trade-ease-surfaces-is-the-rally-sustainable-or-is-it-on-a.md) | +1.2% | -1.6% |
| SOY | 2018-12-04 | [Soybeans, corn up, still waiting for trade deal details - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5833-soybeans-corn-up-still-waiting-for-trade-deal-details-brownfield-ag-news.md) | +1.0% | -0.6% |
| SBM | 2019-01-29 | [Uncertainty is the biggest villain in strained dry bulk market](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61283-uncertainty-is-the-biggest-villain-in-strained-dry-bulk-market.md) | -0.5% | -2.9% |
| SBM | 2025-08-07 | [China soybean imports hit record July high on strong Brazil exports, US trade uncertainties \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12452-china-soybean-imports-hit-record-july-high-on-strong-brazil-exports-us-trade.md) | +4.3% | +2.2% |
| SBM | 2025-04-21 | [U.S.-China trade war 2.0: What are the implications for global oilseed markets? \| IFPRI](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14672-u-s-china-trade-war-2-0-what-are-the-implications-for-global-oilseed-markets.md) | -1.6% | -2.0% |

## Sources

- waterwaysjournal.net: https://www.waterwaysjournal.net/2019/01/25/state-industry-2019/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.