# China warns of “serious” impact of swine fever, cuts meal demand 5%

> China's National Grain and Oil Information Centre said African swine fever is more serious than first thought and cut its 2018/19 soymeal demand forecast about 5% to 66.8 million mt. Outbreaks have hit more than 100 farms since August 2018, and soybean crush margins have been negative for three months.

- Date: 2019-02-28 · published 2019-02-28T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: disease · region China · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/60581-china-warns-of-serious-impact-of-swine-fever-cuts-meal-demand-5
- Commodities: [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Lean Hogs](https://feedsoft.ai/c/HOGS.md)

## Why it matters

Lower hog herd replenishment reduces soymeal demand, weighing on soybean meal and soybean prices, while cheaper pork could shift feed demand toward other proteins.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bearish ▼
- SOY: bearish ▼
- HOGS: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBM | 2019-04-24 | [Impacts of African Swine Fever on China's Feed Industry and Soy Demand - Rabobank](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59584-impacts-of-african-swine-fever-on-china-s-feed-industry-and-soy-demand-rabobank.md) | -1.7% | -1.9% |
| SBM | 2021-03-10 | [Resurgence of African Swine Fever in China Threatens Global Grain Demand](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48100-resurgence-of-african-swine-fever-in-china-threatens-global-grain-demand.md) | -3.0% | -2.9% |
| SBM | 2018-09-11 | [African Swine Fever May Reduce China's Soybean Demand](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63016-african-swine-fever-may-reduce-china-s-soybean-demand.md) | -4.1% | -0.5% |
| SBM | 2019-03-12 | [Swine fever hurts China soybean demand, raises doubts on trade promises](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60092-swine-fever-hurts-china-soybean-demand-raises-doubts-on-trade-promises.md) | +4.4% | +4.2% |
| SBM | 2020-02-18 | [China warns of sustained virus impact on poultry, eggs supply](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54615-china-warns-of-sustained-virus-impact-on-poultry-eggs-supply.md) | -1.7% | +1.8% |
| SOY | 2019-04-24 | [Impacts of African Swine Fever on China's Feed Industry and Soy Demand - Rabobank](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59584-impacts-of-african-swine-fever-on-china-s-feed-industry-and-soy-demand-rabobank.md) | -2.4% | -4.6% |
| SOY | 2021-03-10 | [Resurgence of African Swine Fever in China Threatens Global Grain Demand](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48100-resurgence-of-african-swine-fever-in-china-threatens-global-grain-demand.md) | -1.2% | -2.3% |
| SOY | 2018-09-11 | [African Swine Fever May Reduce China's Soybean Demand](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63016-african-swine-fever-may-reduce-china-s-soybean-demand.md) | -1.2% | +4.3% |

## Sources

- agricensus.com: https://www.agricensus.com/Article/China-warns-of-serious-impact-of-swine-fever-cuts-meal-demand-5-5427.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.