# IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | 2019 February Quick Look

> The IRI's February 2019 ENSO update says tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures cooled to borderline El Niño levels in January and early February, while subsurface waters stayed warmer than average. Atmospheric El Niño patterns developed in late January and February. The official CPC/IRI outlook carries an El Niño advisory, with a 65% chance of El Niño during Feb-Apr falling to 50% for Apr-Jun.

- Date: 2019-02-19 · published 2019-02-19T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/60529-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-february
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

El Niño raises the risk of drought in parts of Asia, Australia and Southern Africa and of uneven rain in South America, which can tighten supplies of grains and oilseeds. Traders may price in a higher weather premium if the event strengthens.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2018-02-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2018 February Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66417-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2018-february.md) | -0.1% | +4.4% |
| CORN | 2020-02-18 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2020 February Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54515-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2020-february.md) | -1.7% | -3.5% |
| CORN | 2025-02-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| February 2025 Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25962-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-february-2025.md) | -5.4% | -3.4% |
| CORN | 2019-03-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2019 March Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60007-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-march-quick.md) | -0.3% | -3.4% |
| CORN | 2019-06-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2019 June Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58501-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-june-quick.md) | +1.3% | -1.6% |
| SOY | 2018-02-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2018 February Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66417-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2018-february.md) | +1.2% | +0.1% |
| SOY | 2025-02-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| February 2025 Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25962-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-february-2025.md) | -0.7% | -2.5% |
| SOY | 2020-02-18 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2020 February Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54515-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2020-february.md) | -2.2% | -8.1% |

## Sources

- iri.columbia.edu: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2019-february-quick-look/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.